13512 Stage Coach Ln · Cresson, TX 76035

$283,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot $165/sqft · 9% below area Est $284k · at est. $108/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO YOUR DREAM HOME! Nestled in a sought after community in Cresson half way between Granbury and Ft. Worth. Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. The open concept layout features a bright living area with large windows that flood the space with natural light, a spacious kitchen with modern appliances, and a cozy dining area. Step outside to your fenced private backyard complete with sprinkler system. The neighborhood offers resort style amenities ensuring something for everyone to enjoy. With its prime location near top-rated schools this home truly has it all for a great price. Come see why this pretty 3-2 is the place for you.

Key facts

• Sprinkler system
• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FENCED PRIVATE BACKYARD
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Cresson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#843 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, schools F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,582 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,419
• List price: $283,000
• Delta: -0.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13417 Gitty Up Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-4%)	3mo	$299,900	$181	82
13404 Gitty Up Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-4%)	3mo	$304,900	$184	81
13484 Stage Coach Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,729 (+1%)	11mo	$294,990	$171	79
13413 Hang Fire Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+4%)	0mo	$304,900	$171	76
13441 Gitty UP Cir	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (+4%)	9mo	$299,990	$168	73
13491 Stage Coach Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+7%)	10mo	$294,415	$160	70
13465 Gitty UP Cir	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+7%)	11mo	$314,990	$172	70
13524 Gunsmoke Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-11%)	10mo	$289,240	$189	70
13408 Gitty Up Cir	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+4%)	12mo	$297,900	$167	69
13598 Gunsmoke Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+7%)	9mo	$299,925	$163	69
13492 Gunsmoke Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+7%)	9mo	$299,920	$163	68
13493 Gunsmoke Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+7%)	9mo	$279,990	$153	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,124
• Equity at exit: $56,704

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,579
• Equity at exit: $50,128

Cash invested: $79,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76035

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,584

Max offer price $244,196

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,750
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13545 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,490	$1.36	1d	1	0.10mi
13557 Gunsmoke Ln Cresson, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	1d	1	0.11mi
13553 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1644	$2,641	$1.61	1d	90	0.12mi
13557 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,325	$1.40	24d	1	0.13mi
13561 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$2,150	$1.47	1d	1	0.14mi
13565 Bonanza Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,250	$1.45	24d	1	0.15mi
13589 Gunsmoke Ln Cresson, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,350	$1.42	1d	1	0.17mi
13404 Gitty Up Cir Cresson, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,150	$1.30	1d	1	0.19mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Cresson, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,270	$1.12	1d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $283,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    price $283,000 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    WELCOME TO YOUR DREAM HOME! Nestled in a sought after community in Cresson half way between Granbury and Ft. Worth. Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. The open concept layout features a bright living area with large windows that flood the space with natural light, a spacious kitchen with modern appliances, and a cozy dining area. Step outside to your fenced private backyard complete with sprinkler system. The neighborhood offers resort style amenities ensuring something for everyone to enjoy. With its prime location near top-rated schools this home truly has it all for a great price. Come see why this pretty 3-2 is the place for you.

15. 2026-03-15
    listed $289,000 Active 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    WELCOME TO YOUR DREAM HOME! Nestled in a sought after community in Cresson half way between Granbury and Ft. Worth. Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. The open concept layout features a bright living area with large windows that flood the space with natural light, a spacious kitchen with modern appliances, and a cozy dining area. Step outside to your fenced private backyard complete with sprinkler system. The neighborhood offers resort style amenities ensuring something for everyone to enjoy. With its prime location near top-rated schools this home truly has it all for a great price. Come see why this pretty 3-2 is the place for you.

16. 2025-02-27
    historical
17. 2025-02-08
    price $285,000
18. 2025-01-16
    listed $288,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,975 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,179 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,204/yr (+$100/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$8,233
• Taxable loss: −$7,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a sought-after community offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for value increases through updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace blinds — improves light control and aesthetics
• Both update flooring — tile flooring is dated and could be replaced with more modern options
• Both update kitchen appliances — modern appliances are a selling point for both buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace blinds — improves light control and aesthetics ↑
• Both update flooring — tile flooring is dated and could be replaced with more modern options ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modern appliances are a selling point for both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cresson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #15205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,247

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Current HPI: 187.0174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $283,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $289,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $288,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+210.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,975 · +1109.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.