2206 S Ellsworth Rd #1736 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$49,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 750 sqft · SingleFamily · 341 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition 2,176 sqft lot ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Swimming pools
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PET FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• SWIMMING POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.2% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($342 loan paydown + $713 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $43,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.09%
• DSCR: 4.96
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $63,369
• Equity at exit: $18,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.66×
• Total profit: $133,940
• Equity at exit: $24,887

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $1,029

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,063	-5% $1,046	+0% $1,029	+5% $1,012	+10% $995
Rent	-10% $892	-5% $960	+0% $1,029	+5% $1,098	+10% $1,166
Rate	-1.0pp $1,054	-0.5pp $1,042	base $1,029	+0.5pp $1,016	+1.0pp $1,003

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	44d	1	0.14mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	16d	1	0.14mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	25d	1	0.14mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,717	$1.48	2d	14	0.27mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #405 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.5	619	$1,900	$3.07	44d	1	0.31mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	6d	1	0.39mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	19d	1	0.39mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.49mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	16d	3	0.60mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	25d	1	0.60mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	6d	1	0.65mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,164	$1.89	44d	1	0.95mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	25d	1	0.95mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	4d	11	0.95mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	2d	1	1.28mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,500 Active 341 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,500 Active 340 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,500 Active 339 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,500 Active 338 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,500 Active 337 DOM
6. 2026-04-16
   price $49,500 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

7. 2026-04-03
   price $57,500 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

8. 2025-12-29
   price $62,000 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

9. 2025-12-05
   price $65,000 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

10. 2025-11-06
    price $67,000 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

11. 2025-10-31
    price $68,000 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

12. 2025-10-27
    price $68,500 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

13. 2025-10-09
    price $69,999 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

14. 2025-08-27
    price $73,000 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

15. 2025-06-28
    listed $75,000 Active 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    This home is in a premiere age-qualified resort with a plethora of amenities including 3 beautiful swimming pools, 8 lighted tennis courts, a softball field, a putting green, and so, so much more. You're not just buying a home; you're buying a lifestyle! With this recently updated 2015 home you'll have 2 bedrooms, 2 baths in a split floor plan, modern white appliances, vinyl plank flooring throughout and a stacked washer and dryer. Great shopping and dining within 2-3 miles, easy access to Loop 202 or I-60, and 30 mins to Sky Harbor Airport Canyon Lake, or the Renaissance Festival. Seller is owner/agent and may carry, reach out for details.

16. 2024-09-24
    historical
17. 2024-07-19
    price $99,000
18. 2024-06-28
    price $118,000
19. 2024-06-07
    price $118,500
20. 2024-05-09
    listed $135,000 Active
21. 2024-04-27
    historical
22. 2024-04-04
    listed $90,000 Active
23. 2023-08-21
    historical
24. 2023-08-21
    historical
25. 2023-06-29
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $12,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,950
• After-tax cash flow: $9,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can significantly enhance the curb appeal and value of the home.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value of the home.
• Rental Replace worn-out appliances — Upgrading the appliances can attract renters and increase rental income.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can significantly enhance the curb appeal and value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value of the home. ↑
• Rental Replace worn-out appliances — Upgrading the appliances can attract renters and increase rental income. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $49,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $57,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $67,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $68,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $68,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $69,999 ARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $73,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $99,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $118,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $118,500 ARMLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-21 Rental Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-08-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Listed $99,000 ARMLS