417 4th Ave SW · Conrad, MT 59425

$114,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1915 6,534 sqft lot Est $199k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remarks: 3 Bedroom and 2 baths, living room, dining room, eat in kitchen plus office/den space provide lots of living space. The home includes a single garage and fenced back yard. This home needs some tender loving care. Come in and make the fixes to make it your own. Owner will consider owner finance.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1915

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Main St, turn west on 4th Ave SW; house is on the north side of 4th Ave SW
• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 car space
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Partial unfinished concrete basement
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 6,534 square feet (0.15 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, range, and refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Partial unfinished concrete basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#30 in MT, #3,843 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Conrad H S (town): math 0% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #265 of 339 in MT (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Meadowlark School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #197 of 293 statewide, top 71%, 154 students, 0% FRL); Utterback 4-6 (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #41 of 146 statewide, top 35%, 119 students, 0% FRL); Conrad High School (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #40 of 132 statewide, top 32%, 153 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Conrad H S average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pondera County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $100,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.56%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,628
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 S Wisconsin St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+1%)	11mo	$145,000	$91	85
619 S Illinois St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+6%)	9mo	$225,000	$136	70
401 S Iowa St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,524 (-3%)	24mo	$220,000	$144	65
405 S Maryland St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,473 (-6%)	23mo	$50,000	$34	57
104 S Virginia St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	20mo	$169,000	$116	55
6 N Wisconsin St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+11%)	6mo	$220,000	$127	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,799
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $29,800
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59425

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,120/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $935

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $366	+0% $334	+5% $302	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $280	+0% $334	+5% $388	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $363	base $334	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Active
18. 2026-04-27
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-04-04
    price $114,000
20. 2026-02-07
    listed $149,000 Active
21. 2020-09-29
    soldstatus 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Remarks: 3 Bedroom and 2 baths, living room, dining room, eat in kitchen plus office/den space provide lots of living space. The home includes a single garage and fenced back yard. This home needs some tender loving care. Come in and make the fixes to make it your own. Owner will consider owner finance.

22. 2020-09-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Remarks: 3 Bedroom and 2 baths, living room, dining room, eat in kitchen plus office/den space provide lots of living space. The home includes a single garage and fenced back yard. This home needs some tender loving care. Come in and make the fixes to make it your own. Owner will consider owner finance.

23. 2020-09-01
    listed $49,000 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Remarks: 3 Bedroom and 2 baths, living room, dining room, eat in kitchen plus office/den space provide lots of living space. The home includes a single garage and fenced back yard. This home needs some tender loving care. Come in and make the fixes to make it your own. Owner will consider owner finance.

24. 2018-04-26
    listed $49,000
25. 2017-11-20
    soldstatus
26. 2003-11-14
    soldstatus
27. 1982-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥90°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,120
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $2,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $3,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conrad H S
• NCES district ID: 3007320
• Math proficiency: 0% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $42,025
• Composite: 20.32/100
• National rank: #13815
• State rank: #265 of 339 in MT

Livability — Conrad

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #3843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conrad, MT
• Population (ZIP): 3,753

Population outlook (Pondera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,131 people
• By 2030: 6,066 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 5,893 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 5,721 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 5,544 · -9.6%
• By 2100: 5,089 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Native American 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Iranian 9% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pondera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 27.4% · R 69.1% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+39.0 2012: R+25.8 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.37%
• Current HPI: 263.3361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+132.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — MRMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $114,000 MRMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $149,000 MRMLS
• 2020-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-29 Sold (MLS) — MRMLS
• 2020-09-01 Listed $49,000 MRMLS
• 2018-04-26 Listed $49,000 MRMLS
• 2017-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,120 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.