2793 Blackforest Dr · Oakville, MO 63129

$62,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 718 sqft · Other · 23 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Basic 1 bedroom condo that was well loved but well maintained. Nice deck on this lower level unit. HOA Fees include private parking space, sewer, water, trash, and outer maintenance plus a pool and clubhouse to use! Low cost insurance and an all electric unit make this home extremely affordable living in prime area! Has stove & amp; microwave; you will need to get your own fridge.

Key facts

• Lower level unit
• Clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• PRIVATE PARKING SPACE
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• WELL MAINTAINED
• LOWER LEVEL UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $62k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.9% in Oakville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#158 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,070 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.76%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $13,702
• Equity at exit: $9,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $42,554
• Equity at exit: $5,361

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63129

• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $542

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2807 Innsbruck Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$941	$1.21	1d	8	0.12mi
5549 Southfield Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	1d	4	0.57mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $62,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $62,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $62,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$973
• − Management: −$973
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $3,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$889
• After-tax cash flow: $3,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1-bedroom condo requires cosmetic repairs and updates to its kitchen, bathroom, and flooring to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — No appliances shown
• Major bathroom fixtures — No photos of bathroom
• Major flooring — No photos of flooring
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers/renters
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · No appliances shown	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · No photos of bathroom	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers/renters ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Oakville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #8790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 51,553
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,553
• Household income: $94,888
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 743.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% American 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.14%
• Current HPI: 208.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $62,000 FSBO.com