2050 Admiral Ln · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$259,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2020 6,100 sqft lot $162/sqft · 5% below area Est $274k · 5% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2020, this 4-bed, 2-bath home features plank tile flooring throughout the main areas and a bright open layout with all bedroom's downstairs for easy everyday living. The kitchen offers granite countertops and a functional design that flows into the living space. Upstairs, the media room/loft provides a great bonus area for movies, play, office, or guests. With approx. 1,603 sq ft, the home delivers a versatile layout in a growing coastal community near fishing, boating, dining, and quick access to Aransas Pass, Ingleside, and Port Aransas.

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Versatile layout
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MEDIA ROOM
• VERSATILE LAYOUT
• QUICK ACCESS TO ARANSAS PASS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 47% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.57%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,512
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -5.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2058 Admiral	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,572 (-2%)	17mo	$319,000	$203	82
1003 W Rhodes Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,608 (+0%)	3mo	$484,500	$301	76
704 Starboard	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+3%)	18mo	$355,000	$215	75
1384 Morgan	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,586 (-1%)	8mo	$379,900	$240	70
1962 Admiral Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-5%)	18mo	$289,900	$190	67
1838 S Saunders St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-8%)	22mo	$325,000	$219	48
1689 Mooney Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-10%)	10mo	$315,000	$220	46
1246 Kenney Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,392 (-13%)	8mo	$135,000	$97	43
1619 Kenney	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,748 (+9%)	21mo	$159,000	$91	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $37,390
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $135,277
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$534 /mo · $6,405/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $1,243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $259,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 595-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    price $259,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 113 DOM
19. 2026-04-13
    price $269,000 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 4-bed, 2-bath home features plank tile flooring throughout the main areas and a bright open layout with all bedroom's downstairs for easy everyday living. The kitchen offers granite countertops and a functional design that flows into the living space. Upstairs, the media room/loft provides a great bonus area for movies, play, office, or guests. With approx. 1,603 sq ft, the home delivers a versatile layout in a growing coastal community near fishing, boating, dining, and quick access to Aransas Pass, Ingleside, and Port Aransas.

20. 2026-02-06
    price $275,900 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 4-bed, 2-bath home features plank tile flooring throughout the main areas and a bright open layout with all bedroom's downstairs for easy everyday living. The kitchen offers granite countertops and a functional design that flows into the living space. Upstairs, the media room/loft provides a great bonus area for movies, play, office, or guests. With approx. 1,603 sq ft, the home delivers a versatile layout in a growing coastal community near fishing, boating, dining, and quick access to Aransas Pass, Ingleside, and Port Aransas.

21. 2026-02-06
    listed $175,900 Active 554-char remark

    Show marketing remark (554 chars)

    Built in 2020, this 4-bed, 2-bath home features plank tile flooring throughout the main areas and a bright open layout with all bedroom's downstairs for easy everyday living. The kitchen offers granite countertops and a functional design that flows into the living space. Upstairs, the media room/loft provides a great bonus area for movies, play, office, or guests. With approx. 1,603 sq ft, the home delivers a versatile layout in a growing coastal community near fishing, boating, dining, and quick access to Aransas Pass, Ingleside, and Port Aransas.

22. 2025-12-24
    historical
23. 2025-10-24
    price $295,000
24. 2025-07-13
    price $310,000
25. 2025-06-25
    listed $315,000 Active
26. 2025-03-20
    listed $315,000 Active
27. 2022-01-28
    historical
28. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus Closed
29. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus
30. 2021-12-27
    status Pending
31. 2021-12-16
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2021-12-01
    listed $274,900 Active
33. 2021-11-29
    historical
34. 2021-11-22
    status Active
35. 2021-11-22
    price $275,900
36. 2021-10-20
    status Pending
37. 2021-10-18
    price $269,900
38. 2021-10-17
    price $284,900
39. 2021-10-09
    listed $289,900 Active
40. 2020-04-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$6,405
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,941
• − Management: −$3,941
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $11,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,792
• After-tax cash flow: $12,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $269,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $275,900 CBMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $175,900 CBMLS
• 2025-12-24 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $295,000 CBMLS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $310,000 CBMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $315,000 CBMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $315,000 CBMLS
• 2022-01-28 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2021-12-27 Pending — CBMLS
• 2021-12-16 Contingent — CBMLS
• 2021-12-01 Listed $274,900 CBMLS
• 2021-11-29 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2021-11-22 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2021-11-22 Price Changed $275,900 CBMLS
• 2021-10-20 Pending — CBMLS
• 2021-10-18 Price Changed $269,900 CBMLS
• 2021-10-17 Price Changed $284,900 CBMLS
• 2021-10-09 Listed $289,900 CBMLS
• 2020-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+54.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,405 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.