Raychel Plan · Wildwood, FL 34785

$295,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,819 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the Raychel by Highland Homes! A favorite among homeowners, this home features beautifully designed spaces including a spacious, open living area and spacious owner's suite! The Raychel features: A spacious gathering room and kitchen with a large counter-height island, walk-in pantry, and adjacent dining cafe, all under an airy volume ceiling. A spacious owner's suite with an elegant tray ceiling, walk-in wardrobe, and dual-vanity en-suite bath with a tiled shower, linen closet, and closeted toilet Optional luxury bath with a garden tub (in lieu of the linen closet) and separate shower. . Drop zone in the laundry room at the garage entry. Front porch.

Key facts

• Dining cafe
• Gathering room
• Volume ceiling

Tags

• GATHERING ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DINING CAFE
• VOLUME CEILING
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $295,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,520.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-595 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,887 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.35%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,520
• List price: $295,900
• Delta: -3.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8662 Wildflower Field Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,819 (0%)	1mo	$305,520	$168	89
1075 Forest Lake Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,715 (-6%)	1mo	$292,900	$171	85
1143 Timberwood Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,715 (-6%)	1mo	$298,000	$174	79
8752 Wildflower Field Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,005 (+10%)	1mo	$313,260	$156	72
8855 Parkinson Pl	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,029 (+12%)	0mo	$327,400	$161	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-87,694
• Equity at exit: $45,554

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-126,263
• Equity at exit: $26,416

Cash invested: $85,546 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $290,900 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34785

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,602
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,583/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,673

Max offer price $219,354

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-384	-5% $-490	+0% $-595	+5% $-701	+10% $-807
Rent	-10% $-747	-5% $-671	+0% $-595	+5% $-520	+10% $-444
Rate	-1.0pp $-442	-0.5pp $-518	base $-595	+0.5pp $-675	+1.0pp $-755

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,380
• Closing costs: $9,166
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 8818 Wildflower Ln, Wildwood FL 34785Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $295,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (including 2-car garage)
• Home design: New construction plan named RaychelSingle-family home (Plan)
• Exterior features: Total living area about 1819

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $295,900 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $295,900 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $295,900 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $295,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $295,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $295,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $295,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $295,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $295,900 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $295,900 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $295,900 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $295,900 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $295,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $295,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $295,900 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $295,900 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $295,900 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $295,900 Active 122 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $295,900 Active 121 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $295,900 Active 120 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $295,900 Active 119 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $295,900 Active 118 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $295,900 Active 117 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $295,900 Active 116 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $295,900 Active 114 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $295,900 Active 113 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $295,900 Active 112 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $295,900 Active 111 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $295,900 Active 110 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $295,900 Active 109 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $295,900 Active 108 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $295,900 Active 107 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $295,900 Active 106 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $295,900 Active 105 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $295,900 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $295,900 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $295,900 Active 102 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $295,900 Active 101 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $295,900 Active 100 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $295,900 Active 99 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $295,900 Active 98 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $295,900 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $295,900 Active 96 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $295,900 Active 93 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $295,900 Active 91 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $295,900 Active 89 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $295,900 Active 87 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $295,900 Active 85 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $295,900 Active 84 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $295,900 Active 83 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,114
• − Property taxes: −$4,583
• − Insurance: −$1,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$8,888
• Taxable loss: −$12,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,065
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Raychel by Highland Homes is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-designed layout, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wildwood Elementary School D+ FL #1,055/2,144 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 High Wildwood Middle/ High School F FL #379/667 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumter County · 161,172 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,568
• Household income: $66,136
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.14%
• Current HPI: 267.9137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 8818 Wildflower Ln, Wildwood FL 34785Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $295,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (including 2-car garage)
• Home design: New construction plan named RaychelSingle-family home (Plan)
• Exterior features: Total living area about 1819

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area