3117 Shell Rd · Hampton, VA 23661

$235,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2007 3,598 sqft lot $148/sqft · 9% below area Est $259k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks with this 3 bed, 2.5 bath home offering 1,584 sq ft of potential and a layout that just makes sense. The big-ticket items are already in good shape, with the roof and main systems in solid condition, so you can focus on cosmetic updates and making it your own. Spacious living areas, generous bedrooms, and a functional flow make it easy to see the upside. Whether you are an investor or a buyer ready to build sweat equity, this is a chance to add value without a full overhaul. Bring your vision and watch it come to life.

Key facts

• 3,598 sq ft lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 54 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($651/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Hampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#133 in VA, #4,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Hampton City Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 131 in VA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+21.4%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 68 units permitted in Hampton city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hampton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,494 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,353
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -9.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
806 Fairland Ave	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,620 (+2%)	1mo	$330,000	$204	79
621 Fairland Ave	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+6%)	3mo	$309,000	$184	71
405 Seminole Rd	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,400 (-12%)	4mo	$253,000	$181	69
8 Roundtree Cir	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (-5%)	4mo	$306,000	$204	66
3614 Matoaka Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (-1%)	2mo	$320,500	$205	60
410 Worster Ave	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,712 (+8%)	3mo	$288,000	$168	54
355 Ivy Home Rd	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,400 (-12%)	0mo	$299,800	$214	49
144 Algonquin Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,742 (+10%)	1mo	$315,000	$181	46
15 Victor St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,755 (+11%)	3mo	$239,900	$137	44
4 Dundee Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-12%)	2mo	$328,900	$235	42
614 Teach St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,806 (+14%)	1mo	$320,000	$177	42
2709 Verell St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,461 (-8%)	2mo	$165,000	$113	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-23,653
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $33,790
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23661

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Rents YoY: 21.4%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,056/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $121	+0% $54	+5% $-12	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-28	+0% $54	+5% $136	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $114	base $54	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Seminole Rd Hampton, VA	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,450	$1.11	15d	1	0.11mi
708 Westwood Ave Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,300	$1.77	15d	1	0.19mi
702 Rutherford St Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,795	$1.24	24d	1	0.20mi
534 Brightwood Ave Hampton, VA	3.0	3.0	1528	$2,095	$1.37	44d	1	0.35mi
310 Lasalle Ave Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,200	$1.18	44d	1	0.57mi
607 Lee St Hampton, VA	3.0	1.5	1404	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	0.70mi
626 Chapel St Hampton, VA	4.0	2.0	1470	$1,900	$1.29	13d	1	0.72mi
901 W Queen St Hampton, VA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1096	$1,600	$1.46	44d	1	0.80mi
3750 Kecoughtan Rd Hampton, VA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	0.83mi
63 Algonquin Rd Hampton, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	44d	1	0.90mi
640 Rolfe St Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	0.91mi
448 Chapel St Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,850	$1.30	3d	1	0.91mi
236 Pocahontas Pl Hampton, VA	2.0	1.0	1262	$1,795	$1.42	2d	1	0.95mi
101 Prince James Dr Hampton, VA	3.0	1.0	1766	$1,645	$0.93	15d	1	1.03mi
130 Pocahontas Pl Hampton, VA	3.0	1.0	1415	$1,695	$1.20	44d	1	1.04mi
100 Chesterfield Rd Hampton, VA	3.0	1.5	1742	$2,200	$1.26	5d	1	1.20mi
130 Chancellor Rd Hampton, VA	4.0	1.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	5d	1	1.22mi
613 Delaware Ave Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,900	$1.76	3d	1	1.23mi
707 Pennsylvania Ave Hampton, VA	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,800	$1.31	24d	1	1.24mi
703 N Back River Rd Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	2062	$2,475	$1.20	44d	1	1.26mi
316 Fountain Way Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,600	$1.41	17d	1	1.32mi
600 Freeman Dr Hampton, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,008	$2.25	2d	8	1.41mi
27 Capps Qtrs #1 Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1734	$2,200	$1.27	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $235,000 Under Contract 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   status $235,000 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $235,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    price $235,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this 3 bed, 2.5 bath home offering 1,584 sq ft of potential and a layout that just makes sense. The big-ticket items are already in good shape, with the roof and main systems in solid condition, so you can focus on cosmetic updates and making it your own. Spacious living areas, generous bedrooms, and a functional flow make it easy to see the upside. Whether you are an investor or a buyer ready to build sweat equity, this is a chance to add value without a full overhaul. Bring your vision and watch it come to life.

14. 2026-05-07
    price $245,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this 3 bed, 2.5 bath home offering 1,584 sq ft of potential and a layout that just makes sense. The big-ticket items are already in good shape, with the roof and main systems in solid condition, so you can focus on cosmetic updates and making it your own. Spacious living areas, generous bedrooms, and a functional flow make it easy to see the upside. Whether you are an investor or a buyer ready to build sweat equity, this is a chance to add value without a full overhaul. Bring your vision and watch it come to life.

15. 2026-04-22
    listed $249,900 Active 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this 3 bed, 2.5 bath home offering 1,584 sq ft of potential and a layout that just makes sense. The big-ticket items are already in good shape, with the roof and main systems in solid condition, so you can focus on cosmetic updates and making it your own. Spacious living areas, generous bedrooms, and a functional flow make it easy to see the upside. Whether you are an investor or a buyer ready to build sweat equity, this is a chance to add value without a full overhaul. Bring your vision and watch it come to life.

16. 2024-04-29
    historical
17. 2024-03-22
    price $278,000
18. 2024-02-08
    listed $280,000 Active
19. 2021-06-08
    soldstatus $220,000
20. 2021-04-13
    status Under Contract
21. 2021-04-08
    listed $210,000 Active
22. 2020-03-23
    soldstatus $187,000
23. 2020-02-17
    status Under Contract
24. 2020-02-06
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2020-01-27
    listed $185,000 Active
26. 2020-01-27
    historical
27. 2019-12-10
    price $190,000
28. 2019-11-19
    listed $195,000 Active
29. 2019-11-19
    historical
30. 2019-10-23
    price $219,000
31. 2019-09-24
    listed $230,000 Active
32. 2019-07-03
    historical
33. 2019-06-18
    listed $207,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,056
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $1,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101800
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,089
• Composite: 55.19/100
• National rank: #1272
• State rank: #40 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hampton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #4302

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton, VA
• County: Hampton City · 132,421 people
• City population: 132,421
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 14,005
• Household income: $65,446
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 704.0

Population outlook (Hampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,055 people
• By 2030: 131,753 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 125,017 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 116,825 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 97,033 · -27.6%
• By 2100: 76,188 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 31% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.9) · D 69.2% · R 29.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.0pp no change · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.9 2020: D+42.2 2016: D+37.8 2012: D+45.4 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.95%
• Current HPI: 274.2769
• Rent YoY: ▲ 21.35%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+13.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $235,000 REINMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $245,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $249,900 REINMLS
• 2024-04-29 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $278,000 REINMLS
• 2024-02-08 Listed $280,000 REINMLS
• 2021-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-13 Pending — REINMLS
• 2021-04-08 Listed $210,000 REINMLS
• 2020-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $187,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-17 Pending — REINMLS
• 2020-02-06 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2020-01-27 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2020-01-27 Listed $185,000 REINMLS
• 2019-12-10 Price Changed $190,000 REINMLS
• 2019-11-19 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2019-11-19 Listed $195,000 REINMLS
• 2019-10-23 Price Changed $219,000 REINMLS
• 2019-09-24 Listed $230,000 REINMLS
• 2019-07-03 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2019-06-18 Listed $207,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,056 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.