4680 Ariola Ln · Lumberton, TX 77657

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 268 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 1.04 ac lot $108/sqft · 13% above area Est $149k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream country retreat! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom Clayton home combines modern comfort with farmhouse charm. Nestled on a spacious 1-acre lot, you’ll have plenty of room to relax, garden, entertain, or simply enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step inside to find an open-concept living area with abundant natural light, a stylish farmhouse kitchen featuring a large island, and a cozy dining space perfect for family gatherings. Outside, the large lot offers endless possibilities — space for a garden, outdoor living area, or future workshop. Whether you’re looking for a quiet retreat or room to grow, this property delivers the best of both worlds: tranquility and convenience. Don’t miss your chance to own this slice of country living! Schedule a tour today.

Key facts

• Farmhouse kitchen
• Outdoor living area
• Cozy dining space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FARMHOUSE KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COZY DINING SPACE
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 17.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,515
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $29,040
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,019/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $439	+0% $389	+5% $340	+10% $290
Rent	-10% $228	-5% $309	+0% $389	+5% $470	+10% $551
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $434	base $389	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5525 Westchase Loop Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,100	$1.52	14d	1	0.50mi
5670 Shadowbend Cir N Unit 104 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	14d	1	0.87mi
30 Stephens Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1290	$1,650	$1.28	44d	1	1.05mi
6575 Daylily Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,350	$0.89	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 268 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $175,000 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   price $175,000 812-char remark

   Show marketing remark (812 chars)

   Welcome to your dream country retreat! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom Clayton home combines modern comfort with farmhouse charm. Nestled on a spacious 1-acre lot, you’ll have plenty of room to relax, garden, entertain, or simply enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step inside to find an open-concept living area with abundant natural light, a stylish farmhouse kitchen featuring a large island, and a cozy dining space perfect for family gatherings. Outside, the large lot offers endless possibilities — space for a garden, outdoor living area, or future workshop. Whether you’re looking for a quiet retreat or room to grow, this property delivers the best of both worlds: tranquility and convenience. Don’t miss your chance to own this slice of country living! Schedule a tour today.

4. 2025-09-05
   listed $180,000 Active 812-char remark

   Show marketing remark (812 chars)

   Welcome to your dream country retreat! This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom Clayton home combines modern comfort with farmhouse charm. Nestled on a spacious 1-acre lot, you’ll have plenty of room to relax, garden, entertain, or simply enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Step inside to find an open-concept living area with abundant natural light, a stylish farmhouse kitchen featuring a large island, and a cozy dining space perfect for family gatherings. Outside, the large lot offers endless possibilities — space for a garden, outdoor living area, or future workshop. Whether you’re looking for a quiet retreat or room to grow, this property delivers the best of both worlds: tranquility and convenience. Don’t miss your chance to own this slice of country living! Schedule a tour today.

5. 2025-08-28
   price $196,000
6. 2021-01-22
   soldstatus
7. 2020-11-17
   listed $158,447

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,183/yr (+$99/mo · 58.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,019
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$484
• After-tax cash flow: $4,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained Clayton manufactured home offers a good condition with modern updates and ample space for a peaceful retreat or growing family.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value.
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value.
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kountze ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825920
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,702
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6244
• State rank: #506 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $175,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-05 Listed $180,000 BBOR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $196,000 BBOR
• 2021-01-22 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2020-11-17 Listed $158,447 BBOR

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,019 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.