17833 Santa Fe Trl · Silver Lakes, CA 92342

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 298 Days on market

Built 1983 9.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Farm with 350+ pistachio trees.

Key facts

• Open desert views
• Manufactured home
• Well water system

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• CONVERTED STORAGE UNIT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WELL WATER SYSTEM
• OPEN DESERT VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No common walls (detached); Total of 1 unit on the parcel; Zoned RC

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic (type unknown); Agricultural well water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Certified 433a foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot approximately 0–1 unit per acre; Mountainous community setting

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the same level; Entry at main level
• Laundry & utility: No in-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.0% in Silver Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#822 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 229 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $579 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.44%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $41,748
• Equity at exit: $46,472

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $115,249
• Equity at exit: $58,246

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92342

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,935/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $765	-5% $723	+0% $680	+5% $638	+10% $595
Rent	-10% $503	-5% $592	+0% $680	+5% $769	+10% $858
Rate	-1.0pp $756	-0.5pp $718	base $680	+0.5pp $641	+1.0pp $602

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 298 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 289 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 285 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 277 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    status Active
17. 2025-10-20
    price $150,000
18. 2025-08-26
    listed $180,000 Active
19. 2023-12-14
    soldstatus $220,000
20. 2023-12-13
    soldstatus $220,000 Closed Sale 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    Farm with 350+ pistachio trees.

21. 2023-12-01
    status Pending Sale 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    Farm with 350+ pistachio trees.

22. 2023-11-18
    listed $220,000 Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    Farm with 350+ pistachio trees.

23. 2023-11-18
    historical $220,000 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    Farm with 350+ pistachio trees.

24. 2020-08-05
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed Sale 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    * * * PRICE TO SELL FAST * * * PISTACHO FARM WITH MORE THAN 350 TREES CAN PRODUCE UP TO 35K A YEAR WITH PROPER CARE, MOVIL HOME IN BAD CONDITION NEEDS WORK , HORSE CORRALS, SUN SHELTER, LOTS OF SPACE, FLAT LAND, MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE, THANK YOU FOR SHOWING,

25. 2020-08-05
    soldstatus $215,000

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    * * * PRICE TO SELL FAST * * * PISTACHO FARM WITH MORE THAN 350 TREES CAN PRODUCE UP TO 35K A YEAR WITH PROPER CARE, MOVIL HOME IN BAD CONDITION NEEDS WORK , HORSE CORRALS, SUN SHELTER, LOTS OF SPACE, FLAT LAND, MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE, THANK YOU FOR SHOWING,

26. 2020-07-07
    status Pending Sale 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    * * * PRICE TO SELL FAST * * * PISTACHO FARM WITH MORE THAN 350 TREES CAN PRODUCE UP TO 35K A YEAR WITH PROPER CARE, MOVIL HOME IN BAD CONDITION NEEDS WORK , HORSE CORRALS, SUN SHELTER, LOTS OF SPACE, FLAT LAND, MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE, THANK YOU FOR SHOWING,

27. 2020-01-27
    listed $230,000 Active 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    * * * PRICE TO SELL FAST * * * PISTACHO FARM WITH MORE THAN 350 TREES CAN PRODUCE UP TO 35K A YEAR WITH PROPER CARE, MOVIL HOME IN BAD CONDITION NEEDS WORK , HORSE CORRALS, SUN SHELTER, LOTS OF SPACE, FLAT LAND, MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE, THANK YOU FOR SHOWING,

28. 2015-06-30
    historical
29. 2015-06-30
    historical
30. 2015-01-13
    listed $299,000 Active
31. 2015-01-10
    listed $299,000
32. 2014-11-30
    historical
33. 2014-07-06
    listed $320,000 Active
34. 2013-06-07
    historical
35. 2012-12-06
    listed $280,000 Active
36. 2008-09-26
    historical
37. 2008-03-25
    listed $299,999
38. 2004-03-04
    soldstatus $75,000
39. 1999-08-12
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,935 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,935 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone D · 45% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,935
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,484
• After-tax cash flow: $6,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Silver Lakes

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #822
• US rank: #23053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,677
• Population (ZIP): 6,677

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 22% Asian 5% Black 4% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Current HPI: 309.2904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-13 Sold (MLS) $220,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-11-18 Listed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-18 Coming Soon $220,000 CRMLS
• 2020-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-05 Sold (MLS) $215,000 CRMLS
• 2020-07-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-01-27 Listed $230,000 CRMLS
• 2015-06-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2015-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-01-13 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2015-01-10 Listed $299,000 SDMLS
• 2014-11-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-07-06 Listed $320,000 CRMLS
• 2013-06-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-12-06 Listed $280,000 CRMLS
• 2008-09-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-03-25 Listed $299,999 CRMLS
• 2004-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1999-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,935 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.