18215 Major Glen Cir · Atascocita, TX 77346

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 2003 4,787 sqft lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $246k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one owner home has been cared for over 20 years. Gutters 2020 New Garage 2008 New fence 2023 Double pane windows 2018 Interior paint for the entire house 2024 Laminate floating click lock in all bedrooms 2022 Come and see how you can make this home yours

Key facts

• 4,787 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,992 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,341
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: 1.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12302 Beacon Tree Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$139	90
12107 English Brook Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-9%)	2mo	$260,000	$159	75
12127 Carriage Oak Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-11%)	2mo	$256,000	$160	72
12311 Carriage Oak Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-15%)	5mo	$229,999	$151	68
4826 Gypsy Forest Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-0%)	1mo	$249,999	$140	66
4910 Blue Spruce Hl	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-1%)	0mo	$268,000	$151	65
5410 Timbers Quail Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-1%)	3mo	$265,000	$149	65
12719 Muir Woods Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+4%)	0mo	$215,000	$116	60
12218 Glen Crossing Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-15%)	4mo	$195,000	$128	59
4814 Winding Timbers Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-11%)	0mo	$264,900	$165	53
4826 Drew Forest Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,002 (+12%)	2mo	$268,700	$134	44
18622 Timbers Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (+11%)	0mo	$270,000	$136	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,171
• Equity at exit: $60,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-51,856
• Equity at exit: $64,417

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,262 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$535 /mo · $6,419/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,513

Max offer price $214,992

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-127	+0% $-198	+5% $-269	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-377	-5% $-288	+0% $-198	+5% $-109	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-135	base $-198	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	12d	1	0.09mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	0.27mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	44d	1	0.56mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	44d	1	0.62mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	0.63mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	0.73mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.73mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	0d	1	0.74mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.79mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	0.88mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	25d	1	0.91mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	1.16mi
17417 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,795	$1.88	0d	11	1.22mi
3918 Atascocita Rd Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,650	$1.75	16d	13	1.24mi
17401 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,139	$1.97	0d	42	1.34mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	16d	1	1.36mi
17571 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,000	$2.17	0d	41	1.39mi
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $249,999 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,999 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,999 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,999 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,999 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,999 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,999 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,999 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,999 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,999 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,999 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,999 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,999 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $259,999 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-04-12
    price $260,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    This one owner home has been cared for over 20 years. Gutters 2020 New Garage 2008 New fence 2023 Double pane windows 2018 Interior paint for the entire house 2024 Laminate floating click lock in all bedrooms 2022 Come and see how you can make this home yours

18. 2026-02-27
    price $265,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    This one owner home has been cared for over 20 years. Gutters 2020 New Garage 2008 New fence 2023 Double pane windows 2018 Interior paint for the entire house 2024 Laminate floating click lock in all bedrooms 2022 Come and see how you can make this home yours

19. 2026-02-16
    price $256,500 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    This one owner home has been cared for over 20 years. Gutters 2020 New Garage 2008 New fence 2023 Double pane windows 2018 Interior paint for the entire house 2024 Laminate floating click lock in all bedrooms 2022 Come and see how you can make this home yours

20. 2026-01-07
    listed $270,000 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    This one owner home has been cared for over 20 years. Gutters 2020 New Garage 2008 New fence 2023 Double pane windows 2018 Interior paint for the entire house 2024 Laminate floating click lock in all bedrooms 2022 Come and see how you can make this home yours

21. 2007-05-22
    historical
22. 2007-05-01
    listed $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,419 · $535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,419 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,419
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,576
• After-tax cash flow: $-802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+116.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $256,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2007-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-05-01 Listed $120,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,419 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.