245 Garden St · New Cassel, NY 11590

$599,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1958 5,000 sqft lot $568/sqft · 14% below area Est $700k · 14% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Distinctive 3-4 bedroom Ranch, with hardwood floors, updated bath & finished basement. This property also features 2 zone heat, laundry area, updated bath, lots of sunlight and sits on a 50x100 lot

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-395 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $529k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $448k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $448k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in New Cassel — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#311 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• Westbury Union Free School District (suburban): math 28% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Park Avenue School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 556 students, 61% FRL); Westbury Middle School (math 5% / reading 32%, grade F, #689 of 729 statewide, top 95%, 1,053 students, 61% FRL); Westbury High School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A-, #583 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 1,541 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($153k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $447,713 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $699,710
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -14.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Sheridan St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-0%)	0mo	$710,000	$676	90
355 Siegel St	0.25mi	3/2.0	984 (-7%)	0mo	$500,000	$508	73
12 Garland Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-0%)	3mo	$452,500	$431	66
11 3rd Ave	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,162 (+10%)	18mo	$640,000	$551	59
7 Holly Ln	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-0%)	21mo	$560,000	$533	58
922 Brush Hollow Rd	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,176 (+12%)	7mo	$612,500	$521	58
258 Covert St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,173 (+11%)	12mo	$473,000	$403	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-122,279
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-139,114
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11590

• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,477 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$541 /mo · $6,493/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$940
• Net cashflow: $-395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,977

Max offer price $529,228

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Westwood Dr Unit 26 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1065	$4,625	$4.34	43d	1	0.87mi
10 Westwood Dr Unit 41 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	1d	1	0.90mi
65 Westwood Dr Unit 93 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	1d	1	0.91mi
7 Mindy Ln Westbury, NY	4.0	2.0	1398	$5,300	$3.79	1d	1	0.92mi
40 Westwood Dr Unit 46 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1065	$4,625	$4.34	17d	1	0.92mi
75 Westwood Dr Unit 105 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	1d	1	0.93mi
85 Westwood Dr Unit 115 Westbury, NY	2.0	2.0	930	$3,955	$4.25	19d	1	0.95mi
105 Westwood Dr Unit 125 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	1d	1	0.99mi
461 Railroad Ave Westbury, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$4,679	$5.79	1d	16	1.00mi
115 Westwood Dr Unit 137 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	1d	1	1.01mi
80 Westwood Dr Unit 205 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,545	$4.48	17d	1	1.03mi
100 Westwood Dr Westbury, NY	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	865	$4,665	$5.39	1d	1	1.06mi
145 Westwood Dr Unit 160 Westbury, NY	2.0	2.0	930	$3,990	$4.29	1d	1	1.07mi
261 Wilson Ave Unit 1ST Westbury, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$3,900	$4.11	24d	1	1.11mi
248 Fulton St Westbury, NY	4.0	2.5	1000	$5,000	$5.00	43d	1	1.19mi
865 Grand Blvd Westbury, NY	4.0	2.0	1311	$4,800	$3.66	12d	1	1.20mi
55 Acre Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1114	$4,595	$4.12	11d	1	1.37mi
64 Arrow Ln Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1422	$4,950	$3.48	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $599,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $639,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $639,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $639,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $639,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $639,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $639,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $639,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $675,000 Active 201-char remark
17. 2026-05-05
    historical $675,000 201-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,493 · $541/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,308 · $692/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,815/yr (+$151/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$6,493
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,298
• − Management: −$4,298
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$15,337
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westbury Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3630960
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $77,391
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5498
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Cassel

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #5155

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Cassel, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 48,243
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 47,599
• Household income: $152,960
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.76%
• Current HPI: 340.5834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,493 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.