2513 Golden Shores Dr · Fenton, MI 48430

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · SingleFamily · 101 Days on market

Built 1981 5,227 sqft lot $132/sqft · 25% below area Est $326k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for waterfront living. Fishing, canoeing, and kayaking on Golden Pond. Townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. L shaped living room, dining room. Kitchen has newer appliances and eat in space. Walk out lower level leads out to deck and water. Laundry area in lower level includes washer and dryer. Nice size rooms throughout. One car attached garage. Lots of living space inside and out. Occupancy at closing. Don't wait to make it yours! Summer is coming!!!

Key facts

• Deck and water
• Laundry area
• Newer appliances

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• WALK OUT LOWER LEVEL
• DECK AND WATER
• LAUNDRY AREA
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• EAT IN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Fenton Community Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #124 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $245k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $222,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,448
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -24.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2509 Golden Shores Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,828 (-2%)	5mo	$255,000	$139	92
2497 Golden Shores Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+5%)	7mo	$220,000	$113	85
2369 Golden Shores Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+1%)	5mo	$205,000	$109	82
3180 Rolston Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,848 (-1%)	9mo	$290,000	$157	73
2490 Golden Shores Ct	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+2%)	10mo	$550,000	$288	68
14020 North Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,758 (-6%)	1mo	$425,000	$242	65
2414 Cranewood Dr	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,970 (+6%)	5mo	$525,000	$266	62
2236 Grove Park Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-6%)	0mo	$779,900	$447	58
2236 Grove Park Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-6%)	0mo	$779,900	$447	58
14108 North Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (-2%)	4mo	$395,000	$217	58
13147 Lake Shore Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-8%)	10mo	$765,000	$449	55
14152 North Rd	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,788 (-4%)	9mo	$415,000	$232	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-34,806
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-26,473
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48430

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,430/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,223

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14292 Westman Dr Fenton, MI	3.0	3.5	2485	$4,200	$1.69	20d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $245,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Great opportunity for waterfront living. Fishing, canoeing, and kayaking on Golden Pond. Townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. L shaped living room, dining room. Kitchen has newer appliances and eat in space. Walk out lower level leads out to deck and water. Laundry area in lower level includes washer and dryer. Nice size rooms throughout. One car attached garage. Lots of living space inside and out. Occupancy at closing. Don't wait to make it yours! Summer is coming!!!

17. 2026-05-04
    price $245,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Great opportunity for waterfront living. Fishing, canoeing, and kayaking on Golden Pond. Townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. L shaped living room, dining room. Kitchen has newer appliances and eat in space. Walk out lower level leads out to deck and water. Laundry area in lower level includes washer and dryer. Nice size rooms throughout. One car attached garage. Lots of living space inside and out. Occupancy at closing. Don't wait to make it yours! Summer is coming!!!

18. 2026-03-09
    listed $260,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Great opportunity for waterfront living. Fishing, canoeing, and kayaking on Golden Pond. Townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. L shaped living room, dining room. Kitchen has newer appliances and eat in space. Walk out lower level leads out to deck and water. Laundry area in lower level includes washer and dryer. Nice size rooms throughout. One car attached garage. Lots of living space inside and out. Occupancy at closing. Don't wait to make it yours! Summer is coming!!!

19. 2026-03-09
    listed $260,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Great opportunity for waterfront living. Fishing, canoeing, and kayaking on Golden Pond. Townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. L shaped living room, dining room. Kitchen has newer appliances and eat in space. Walk out lower level leads out to deck and water. Laundry area in lower level includes washer and dryer. Nice size rooms throughout. One car attached garage. Lots of living space inside and out. Occupancy at closing. Don't wait to make it yours! Summer is coming!!!

20. 2020-11-06
    soldstatus $155,000
21. 2020-11-03
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold
22. 2020-11-03
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed
23. 2020-09-08
    status Pending
24. 2020-09-08
    status Pending
25. 2019-12-09
    listed $149,900 Active
26. 2019-12-09
    listed $149,900 Active
27. 2014-06-05
    soldstatus $95,800
28. 2014-05-20
    soldstatus $95,800
29. 2014-05-20
    soldstatus $95,800
30. 2014-03-08
    historical
31. 2013-10-07
    listed $109,900
32. 2013-10-07
    listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,430 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,430 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,430
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$2,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$706
• After-tax cash flow: $1,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Fenton Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620670
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,788
• Composite: 40.93/100
• National rank: #3609
• State rank: #124 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Fenton, MI
• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 39,309
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,309
• Household income: $100,193
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.66%
• Current HPI: 238.8371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+122.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $245,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $245,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-09 Listed $260,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-09 Listed $260,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-03 Sold (MLS) $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-11-03 Sold (MLS) $155,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-09-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-09-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-12-09 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-12-09 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,800 Public Records
• 2014-05-20 Sold (MLS) $95,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-05-20 Sold (MLS) $95,800 REALCOMP
• 2014-03-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-10-07 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-10-07 Listed $109,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,430 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.