514 S Timber Trl · Wildwood, FL 34785

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1987 6,118 sqft lot Est $147k · 5% under $361/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting home offering nearly 1,400 square feet of comfortable living space, perfectly designed for both everyday living and entertaining. A standout feature is the expansive screened lanai—ideal for hosting friends, relaxing outdoors, and enjoying Florida living year-round. Inside, the open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the spacious living and dining room combination, providing plenty of room for gatherings. The well-appointed kitchen overlooks the living area, making it easy to stay connected with guests while cooking. Both bedrooms are generously sized and feature walk-in closets, offering ample storage and comfort. An interior utility room adds versati

Key facts

• Driving range
• Hot tub
• Screened lanai

Tags

• SCREENED LANAI
• HURRICANE PROOF SHED
• INTERIOR UTILITY ROOM
• LARGE SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• DRIVING RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Unit located in a community with gated access and recreational amenities
• Financial info: Total monthly HOA fees $361.42; total annual fees $4,337.04; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee $361.42 (includes guard, cable TV, internet, structure maintenance, management, pool, recreational facilities, security, trash); Association approval required; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis, pickleball, basketball, shuffleboard, trails, storage, golf, dog park; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour guard (included in HOA)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected; Public utilities available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Roof over; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Screened side porch; Exterior storage; Water access to canal, lake, pond

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Drapes; Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Crawlspace foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $140k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,368
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Sandalwood Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,352 (0%)	14mo	$118,000	$87	83
105 Cypress Rd	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	4mo	$160,000	$119	77
116 Winterberry Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,352 (0%)	2mo	$155,000	$115	76
600 Oak Blvd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,288 (-5%)	5mo	$140,000	$109	72
104 Winterberry Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	6mo	$134,000	$107	64
100 Lyonia Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	12mo	$128,000	$103	60
113 N Timber Trl	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	8mo	$117,500	$82	60
103 Robin Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	3mo	$59,000	$51	55
111 Sugar Maple Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	2mo	$125,000	$109	54
121 Forest Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,519 (+12%)	4mo	$240,000	$158	38
120 Forest Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	9mo	$175,000	$114	33
118 Forest Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (+15%)	8mo	$260,000	$168	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,440
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,379
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34785

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $527/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$361
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $233	+0% $194	+5% $154	+10% $114
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $124	+0% $194	+5% $263	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $229	base $194	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5541 Goodman Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$1,990	$1.65	22d	1	0.27mi
5806 Winn Way Unit 1525269P Wildwood, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,770	$1.14	22d	1	0.65mi
21204 Sandalwood Dr Unit 21-204 Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,550	$1.40	22d	1	0.70mi
15203 Sandalwood Dr #203 Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1474	$1,550	$1.05	22d	1	0.84mi
1750 Debellis Ln Unit Posted To Internet Sumterville, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$4,250	$2.82	22d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $361 · $4,332/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-04-03
   listed $139,900 Active
7. 2025-10-30
   historical
8. 2025-08-12
   price $157,000
9. 2025-06-04
   price $165,000
10. 2025-04-30
    listed $175,000 Active
11. 2001-04-18
    soldstatus $47,000
12. 1987-07-01
    soldstatus $63,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $527 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$634/yr (+$53/mo · 120.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$527
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − HOA: −$4,332
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$66
• After-tax cash flow: $2,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,568
• Household income: $66,136
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.14%
• Current HPI: 267.9137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+121.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $157,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $527 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.