8221 Atherton St · Arlington, TX 76002

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 7,579 sqft lot $132/sqft · 22% below area Est $371k · 22% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED, BEST AND FINAL OFFER DUE BY SATURDAY, MAY 30TH AT 8AM. Located in Arlington, 8221 Atherton Street offers a spacious and functional layout with inviting indoor living areas, a fenced backyard, and convenient access to nearby shopping, dining, entertainment, and commuter routes. The brick and stone exterior creates a welcoming first impression, while the interior features hardwood floors, neutral paint, and multiple flexible spaces designed for everyday comfort and entertaining. Inside, the home offers two living areas and two dining areas, providing room to gather, relax, work, or host with ease. The main living area features a cozy fireplace and an open-concept flo

Key facts

• Cozy fireplace
• Fenced backyard
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• COZY FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 360

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 98 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,699 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,151
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -15.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Mary Lou Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,292 (+4%)	1mo	$380,000	$166	80
2602 Logan Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,094 (-5%)	3mo	$365,000	$174	71
2704 Hearthside Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,340 (+6%)	2mo	$389,000	$166	66
8301 Redheart St	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,304 (+4%)	2mo	$349,000	$151	61
608 Flooded Gum St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,105 (-4%)	1mo	$324,999	$154	60
8118 La Frontera Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,169 (-2%)	0mo	$344,900	$159	60
8422 Seven Hills Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,093 (-5%)	1mo	$349,999	$167	60
2104 Nugent Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,371 (+8%)	1mo	$405,000	$171	58
633 Denali Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,131 (-3%)	2mo	$379,999	$178	53
8118 York Beach Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,085 (-5%)	3mo	$314,900	$151	53
9118 Rainland Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (-7%)	0mo	$425,000	$207	49
602 Soledad St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (-15%)	2mo	$335,500	$179	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,926
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,007
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76002

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$615 /mo · $7,381/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,898

Max offer price $277,699

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $12	+0% $-70	+5% $-152	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-181	+0% $-70	+5% $41	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $4	base $-70	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9002 S Collins St Arlington, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1651	$3,405	$2.06	0d	64	0.24mi
8100 S Collins St Arlington, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$2,703	$2.37	0d	163	0.24mi
2704 Pyramid Ln Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2246	$2,550	$1.14	25d	1	0.31mi
8339 Wesson Rd Arlington, TX	5.0	2.0	2118	$2,899	$1.37	13d	1	0.32mi
2204 Windcastle Dr Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	2226	$3,000	$1.35	44d	1	0.32mi
8204 Tierra del Sol Rd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1821	$2,445	$1.34	16d	1	0.32mi
8204 Tierra del Sol Rd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1821	$2,445	$1.34	13d	1	0.32mi
616 Almandora Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2105	$2,290	$1.09	5d	1	0.36mi
8406 Beachplum Way Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,850	$1.53	44d	1	0.38mi
8402 Olivia Meadow Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.5	2606	$2,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.43mi
708 Moss Glen Trl Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,195	$1.27	11d	1	0.52mi
614 Silvertop Rd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,651	$1.43	0d	1	0.53mi
623 Soledad St Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,370	$1.41	44d	1	0.55mi
618 Rosarita Rd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1997	$2,395	$1.20	25d	1	0.57mi
2407 Elliott Ave Mansfield, TX	5.0	3.5	2341	$2,725	$1.16	44d	1	0.59mi
14 Enchanted Ct Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2293	$2,600	$1.13	44d	1	0.59mi
606 Primavera Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2419	$3,100	$1.28	13d	1	0.60mi
8119 Lost Canyon Trl Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,445	$1.17	4d	1	0.62mi
629 Rosarita Rd Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,650	$1.37	18d	1	0.62mi
2406 Elliott Ave Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.5	2077	$2,491	$1.20	44d	1	0.62mi
2007 Walnut Hills Ln Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2172	$2,400	$1.10	44d	1	0.64mi
920 Dove Meadows Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1638	$2,151	$1.31	25d	1	0.73mi
8107 Young Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	2661	$2,500	$0.94	44d	1	0.73mi
8115 Wesson Rd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	2384	$2,261	$0.95	44d	1	0.74mi
9005 Cloudveil Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,500	$1.51	11d	1	0.78mi
9106 Fieldview Ct Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,700	$1.35	44d	1	0.78mi
805 Underhill Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,450	$1.48	25d	1	0.84mi
8103 Zephyr Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$2,395	$1.56	44d	1	0.84mi
625 Spanish Oak Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,125	$1.36	44d	1	0.86mi
1708 Windcastle Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2330	$2,600	$1.12	44d	1	0.92mi
1653 Churchill Ln Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	2230	$2,500	$1.12	44d	1	0.95mi
2 Hastings Ct Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,395	$1.66	25d	1	0.97mi
8015 Splitrail Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,510	$1.41	25d	1	1.00mi
7911 Decoy Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2355	$2,800	$1.19	44d	1	1.01mi
1104 Chapel Hill Dr Mansfield, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,415	$1.46	25d	1	1.05mi
8012 Blue Duck Trl Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	44d	1	1.06mi
343 Mesquite Hill Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	2539	$3,095	$1.22	18d	1	1.08mi
8024 Mourning Dove Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	3.0	2469	$2,801	$1.13	44d	1	1.16mi
8024 Mourning Dove Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	3.0	2469	$2,680	$1.09	25d	1	1.16mi
1508 Kendal Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.5	2282	$2,895	$1.27	25d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $290,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   historical
3. 2026-05-12
   price $312,000
4. 2026-05-04
   status Active
5. 2026-02-12
   listed $332,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,381 · $615/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,381 · $615/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$7,381
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,698
• − Management: −$2,698
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mansfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828920
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,934
• Composite: 45.82/100
• National rank: #2558
• State rank: #125 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #2697

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 366,588
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,265
• Household income: $100,667
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 24% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1% Slovak 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 15% Vietnamese 7% Arabic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.36%
• Current HPI: 256.7208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $312,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $332,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,381 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.