531 Pantera Dr · South Alamo, TX 78516

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2010 9,052 sqft lot $79/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

531 Pantera in Alamo needs to be SOLD asap! Bring your offer! Call us today!

Key facts

• 9,052 sq ft lot
• Built 2010
• Listed 111 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,320 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.40%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,682
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -52.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2703 Tower Rd	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (+2%)	18mo	$109,500	$171	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $15,283
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $43,570
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78516

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,513/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $518

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    price $50,000 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    531 Pantera in Alamo needs to be SOLD asap! Bring your offer! Call us today!

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $75,000 Active 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    531 Pantera in Alamo needs to be SOLD asap! Bring your offer! Call us today!

18. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus
19. 2002-08-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,513
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$930
• After-tax cash flow: $3,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — South Alamo

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1320
• US rank: #22734

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 34,370
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,370
• Household income: $53,229
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 40% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 86%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.56%
• Current HPI: 225.4438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $50,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $75,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,513 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.