306 Winslow St · Watertown, NY 13601

$149,900

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1897 7,750 sqft lot Est $275k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and full of potential, this 5-bedroom, 1.5-bath Colonial in Watertown offers over 2,300 square feet of living space on a fully fenced lot. Featuring a flexible layout with a first-floor bedroom and half bath, this home is ideal for larger households, multi-generational living, or anyone needing extra space. The eat-in kitchen, formal dining room, and generously sized living areas provide plenty of room for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find four additional bedrooms and a full bath, plus a potential 6th bedroom or bonus space. Outside, enjoy the open front porch, fenced backyard, and convenient location near public transportation and neighborhood amenities

Key facts

• Open front porch
• Convenient location
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two stories; Existing construction; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Open porch/patio; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement with sump pump; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knickerbocker School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 364 students, 71% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $124k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.54%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,418
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 Winslow St	0.08mi	5/2.0	2,288 (-3%)	2mo	$203,425	$89	88
512 Academy St	0.19mi	5/2.0	2,124 (-10%)	4mo	$215,000	$101	69
418 Brainard St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,152 (-9%)	1mo	$274,000	$127	66
946 Franklin St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,110 (-10%)	0mo	$256,000	$121	61
1025 Boyd St	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,345 (-0%)	2mo	$231,000	$99	60
360 Brainard St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (-14%)	2mo	$162,000	$80	57
919 Academy St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,128 (-10%)	0mo	$150,000	$70	56
203 Keyes Ave	0.22mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,057 (-13%)	4mo	$241,000	$117	56
158 Haley St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,105 (-11%)	2mo	$241,000	$114	56
1141 State St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,272 (-4%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	54
142 Haley St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,104 (-11%)	4mo	$279,900	$133	53
150 Bishop St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,008 (-15%)	5mo	$240,000	$120	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,517
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $80,127
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,110/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,297

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $411	+0% $369	+5% $326	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $299	+0% $369	+5% $438	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $407	base $369	+0.5pp $330	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
156 N Meadow St Watertown, NY	4.0	1.0	2535	$1,500	$0.59	45d	1	1.00mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,626	$1.13	45d	9	1.07mi
1815 Olmstead Dr Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1380	$1,676	$1.21	45d	6	1.39mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   price $149,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $159,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $169,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $179,900 Active
19. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $123,600
20. 2017-06-26
    historical
21. 2017-06-02
    listed $130,000
22. 2014-06-26
    historical
23. 2014-02-17
    listed $144,800
24. 2007-11-20
    soldstatus $127,000
25. 2007-11-19
    soldstatus $127,000
26. 2007-07-18
    listed $129,800
27. 2001-10-31
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,110 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,322 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 10.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,110
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$517
• After-tax cash flow: $3,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+158.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $179,900 CNYIS
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $123,600 Public Records
• 2017-06-26 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-06-02 Listed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2014-06-26 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-02-17 Listed $144,800 CNYIS
• 2007-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-19 Sold (MLS) $127,000 CNYIS
• 2007-07-18 Listed $129,800 CNYIS
• 2001-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,110 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.