12614 Rockridge Rd · Lakeland, FL 33809

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home on 1 acre of land in Lakeland, FL.

Key facts

• Lakeland fl
• 1 acre of land
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE OF LAND
• LAKELAND FL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 1 carport space
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 1 acre lot
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on the property; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $130k implies a 1577% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.51%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,763
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $26,537
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,809/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,228

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $544	-5% $507	+0% $471	+5% $434	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $399	+0% $471	+5% $543	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $504	base $471	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 39-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,809 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,809 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,809
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$926
• After-tax cash flow: $4,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1577.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,809 · +232.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.