18103 Misty Jade Ln · Houston, TX 77429

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2004 7,927 sqft lot $184/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Look no further. This is the perfect home to raise a family or great for people looking to downsize a bit. Only one owner with the home being well maintained and it is move in ready. This home features a new roof, fresh paint inside and out including the attached garage, open living area and a convenient office/study. It sits on a nice oversized lot with plenty of room in the large backyard for kids and pets to run and play. The home is conveniently located to schools, churches, shopping, dining and entertainment. Easy access to Hwy. 290 and the Grand Parkway. Schedule a private tour today. This one last long.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Large backyard
• Open living area

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESH PAINT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• CONVENIENT OFFICE
• OVERSIZED LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Spectrum) with an annual fee of $450

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Located in a subdivision; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 14x13; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10; Office (First floor) — 10x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First floor) — 9x5
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor) — 5x8

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robison El (math 52% / reading 56%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 916 students, 41% FRL); Goodson Middle (math 60% / reading 64%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,418 students, 41% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 43% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 618 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,742 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,870
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 0.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18119 Misty Jade Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,357 (0%)	8mo	$259,000	$191	92
18218 Coreland Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,357 (0%)	14mo	$249,000	$183	84
16315 Chandler Ridge Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,357 (0%)	22mo	$255,000	$188	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-55,302
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-83,546
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77429

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 618
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,090/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $226,424

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-62	+0% $-133	+5% $-204	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-220	+0% $-133	+5% $-46	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-69	base $-133	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18534 Burgundy Sky Way Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	0.63mi
20002 Edworthy Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1295	$2,250	$1.74	13d	1	1.32mi
14928 Mueschke Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,602	$2.44	3d	6	1.37mi
20130 Schiel Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1124	$2,461	$2.19	1d	26	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-10
   listed $249,900 Active 625-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,090 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,090 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,090
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,334
• Household income: $119,191
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1264.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.36%
• Current HPI: 232.7267
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $249,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,090 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.