TBD County Road 4838 · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition 0.40 ac lot $143/sqft · 26% below area Est $224k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Winnsboro - Wood County Waterfront Home - - - You've heard the expression 'Diamond in the rough', and that could be said of this almost forgotten waterfront home. Situated on 2 partially wooded lots, this rare find offers the skilled handyman or investor the opportunity to restore this little gem to it's highest & best use. Would make a good part-time or full-time rental, a fix & flip, or an inexpensive way to acquire a Lake Home. One outbuilding; contents not included. Please be aware that pier & boathouse have been damaged by weather over time. "Caution is advised". To be sold as is. Seller not able to make repairs, but eager to entertain an offer! Call today!

Key facts

• Pier and boathouse
• Outbuilding
• Waterfront home

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• PARTIALLY WOODED LOTS
• OUTBUILDING
• PIER AND BOATHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multi-parcel property (multiple parcel IDs); Dock permitted
• Financial info: Listing accepts cash and conventional financing; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community amenities include boat ramp, fishing, lake, marina, restaurant

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street, open parking
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Waterfront on Lake Winnsboro (main body)
• Construction: Built in 1971; Siding and wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Dock (uncovered) with lakefront access; Screened porch; Outbuilding on property; Large backyard with grass; Many trees; Partially wooded lot; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling; Space heater for heating
• Interior features: Paneling; Other interior finishes; Fireplace in living room (wood burning); One living area; One dining area; Two total main rooms
• Laundry & utility: Space heater (heating)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winnsboro El (355 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 49% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,445 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,331
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -26.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 S County Road 4837	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (+12%)	3mo	$157,000	$122	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,602
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,498
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $200	+0% $143	+5% $86	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $79	+0% $143	+5% $207	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $185	base $143	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (703 chars)

   Lake Winnsboro - Wood County Waterfront Home - - - You've heard the expression 'Diamond in the rough', and that could be said of this almost forgotten waterfront home. Situated on 2 partially wooded lots, this rare find offers the skilled handyman or investor the opportunity to restore this little gem to it's highest & best use. Would make a good part-time or full-time rental, a fix & flip, or an inexpensive way to acquire a Lake Home. One outbuilding; contents not included. Please be aware that pier & boathouse have been damaged by weather over time. "Caution is advised". To be sold as is. Seller not able to make repairs, but eager to entertain an offer! Call today!

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 703-char remark

   Show marketing remark (703 chars)

   Lake Winnsboro - Wood County Waterfront Home - - - You've heard the expression 'Diamond in the rough', and that could be said of this almost forgotten waterfront home. Situated on 2 partially wooded lots, this rare find offers the skilled handyman or investor the opportunity to restore this little gem to it's highest & best use. Would make a good part-time or full-time rental, a fix & flip, or an inexpensive way to acquire a Lake Home. One outbuilding; contents not included. Please be aware that pier & boathouse have been damaged by weather over time. "Caution is advised". To be sold as is. Seller not able to make repairs, but eager to entertain an offer! Call today!

3. 2026-05-06
   listed $165,000 Active 703-char remark

   Show marketing remark (703 chars)

   Lake Winnsboro - Wood County Waterfront Home - - - You've heard the expression 'Diamond in the rough', and that could be said of this almost forgotten waterfront home. Situated on 2 partially wooded lots, this rare find offers the skilled handyman or investor the opportunity to restore this little gem to it's highest & best use. Would make a good part-time or full-time rental, a fix & flip, or an inexpensive way to acquire a Lake Home. One outbuilding; contents not included. Please be aware that pier & boathouse have been damaged by weather over time. "Caution is advised". To be sold as is. Seller not able to make repairs, but eager to entertain an offer! Call today!

4. 2026-05-04
   listed $165,000 Active 686-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $1,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This waterfront home is in fair condition and requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its appearance and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major siding — The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major flooring — The flooring appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of maintenance.
• Major windows — The windows appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major foundation/structure — The foundation and structure appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — The landscaping and curb appeal appear to be overgrown and in need of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint the interior and exterior — Painting the interior and exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace the roof — A new roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace the siding — New siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace the flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace the windows — New windows will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace the HVAC/mechanicals — A new HVAC and mechanical system will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both landscape and maintain the property — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping appears to be overgrown and in need of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · The windows appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · The foundation and structure appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · The landscaping and curb appeal appear to be overgrown and in need of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint the interior and exterior — Painting the interior and exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the roof — A new roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the siding — New siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the windows — New windows will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace the HVAC/mechanicals — A new HVAC and mechanical system will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both landscape and maintain the property — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,685

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2026-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $165,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $165,000 NTREIS