12903 Green Valley Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$169,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Built 2018 9,300 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2018 manufactured home situated on a spacious unrestricted lot, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to city amenities. Located just minutes from Pearland and Houston, this property provides an easy commute while maintaining privacy and flexibility. The property is equipped with a private water well and septic system, giving you independence from city utilities and added cost savings. With no deed restrictions, you have the freedom to do whatever you want.

Key facts

• Private water well
• No deed restrictions
• Septic system

Tags

• SPACIOUS UNRESTRICTED LOT
• PRIVATE WATER WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NO DEED RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.83%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,318
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,994
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $502/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $535	-5% $487	+0% $439	+5% $391	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $346	+0% $439	+5% $533	+10% $626
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $482	base $439	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-02-27
    status Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Beautiful 2018 manufactured home situated on a spacious unrestricted lot, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to city amenities. Located just minutes from Pearland and Houston, this property provides an easy commute while maintaining privacy and flexibility. The property is equipped with a private water well and septic system, giving you independence from city utilities and added cost savings. With no deed restrictions, you have the freedom to do whatever you want.

17. 2026-02-20
    status Pending 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Beautiful 2018 manufactured home situated on a spacious unrestricted lot, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to city amenities. Located just minutes from Pearland and Houston, this property provides an easy commute while maintaining privacy and flexibility. The property is equipped with a private water well and septic system, giving you independence from city utilities and added cost savings. With no deed restrictions, you have the freedom to do whatever you want.

18. 2026-02-13
    listed $169,900 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Beautiful 2018 manufactured home situated on a spacious unrestricted lot, offering the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to city amenities. Located just minutes from Pearland and Houston, this property provides an easy commute while maintaining privacy and flexibility. The property is equipped with a private water well and septic system, giving you independence from city utilities and added cost savings. With no deed restrictions, you have the freedom to do whatever you want.

19. 2015-06-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $502 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,607/yr (+$217/mo · 519.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$502
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $2,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$701
• After-tax cash flow: $4,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2015-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $502 · -25.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.