616 Marshtree Ln #308 · Fayetteville, NC 28314

$149,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Condo public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2006 $180/mo HOA · 13% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS 3RD FLOR CONDO. 3BDRMS; 1 COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE OR NURSERY. MASTER HAS A LARGE WIC. 2 FULL BATHROOMS. LIVING ROOM SEPARATES THE BEDROOMS. MARBLE HEARTH ELECTRIC FIREPLACE. LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM. PATIO OVERLOOKS THE POOL, PICNIC (GRILL) AREA AND VOLLEYBALL COURT. THERE IS A FITNESS CENTER. THIS UNIT INLCUDES A SINGLE CAR GARAGE.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Wood views
• Overlooking pool

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• ACCESS TO BALCONY
• OVERLOOKING CLUBHOUSE
• OVERLOOKING POOL
• WOOD VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $180 monthly fee; Community pool; Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium (residential)
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Balcony

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: Information not provided
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Basement (other); Factory-built fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($12/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cliffdale Elementary (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,168 of 1,410 statewide, top 83%, 658 students, 100% FRL); Westover Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Westover High (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #387 of 535 statewide, top 73%, 1,202 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $150k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,985
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,819
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28314

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $43	+0% $1	+5% $-41	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-56	+0% $1	+5% $58	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $39	base $1	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
621 Marshtree Ln #305 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,500	$1.32	25d	1	0.05mi
625 Marshtree Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1170	$1,275	$1.09	15d	2	0.07mi
916 Glen Reilly Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1071	$1,400	$1.31	25d	1	0.25mi
6734 Winchester St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1068	$3,195	$2.99	15d	1	0.26mi
605 S Reilly Rd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,349	$1.36	15d	1	0.30mi
6848 Torrance Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1290	$3,295	$2.55	15d	1	0.37mi
6855 Shawcross Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.39mi
6407 Wallaby Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	15d	1	0.49mi
1001 Brookhollow Dr #4 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,550	$1.18	25d	1	0.60mi
1002 Brookhollow Dr #5 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,290	$0.98	23d	1	0.61mi
540 Auburndale Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	15d	1	0.63mi
1014 Brookhollow Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,000	$0.95	15d	1	0.64mi
6720 Willowbrook Dr #5 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	15d	1	0.66mi
1018 Wood Creek Dr #9 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,195	$1.09	25d	1	0.67mi
1022 Brookhollow Dr #5 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,050	$0.97	25d	1	0.67mi
1000 Wood Creek Dr #9 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	25d	1	0.68mi
604 Raven Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	25d	1	0.70mi
6809 Willowbrook Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$990	$0.94	25d	1	0.71mi
567 Cutchen Ln Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,425	$1.46	15d	61	0.71mi
6748 Willowbrook Dr #9 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1157	$1,100	$0.95	25d	1	0.71mi
244 Wickford Ct Unit 6 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1141	$995	$0.87	25d	1	0.73mi
6793 Candlewood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,475	$1.19	15d	1	0.74mi
338 Milburn Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1128	$1,550	$1.37	25d	1	0.77mi
942 Stewarts Creek Dr #8 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,055	$1.03	25d	1	0.81mi
942 Stewarts Creek Dr #9 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,250	$1.00	25d	1	0.81mi
672 Bartons Landing Pl Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,100	$0.96	15d	1	0.98mi
495 Stiles Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	15d	1	0.99mi
1131 Capeharbor Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	14	1.00mi
679 Bartons Landing Pl Unit 6 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,200	$1.05	25d	1	1.00mi
679 Bartons Landing Pl Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,150	$1.00	25d	1	1.00mi
205 Brookford Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,640	$1.37	25d	1	1.02mi
7252 Ainsley St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1265	$1,299	$1.03	25d	1	1.02mi
663 Bartons Landing Pl Unit 2 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,200	$1.04	15d	1	1.03mi
7298 Ryan St Fayetteville, NC	4.0	1.5	1315	$1,400	$1.06	25d	1	1.04mi
202 Bertram Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,300	$1.11	15d	1	1.04mi
6309 Easthampton Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,600	$0.90	25d	1	1.06mi
698 Bartons Landing Pl #5 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,100	$0.97	25d	1	1.07mi
7903 Cliffdale Rd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	15d	2	1.25mi
417 Watergap Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	3.0	1648	$1,950	$1.18	25d	1	1.30mi
321 Bahama Loop Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,100	$1.19	15d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $149,900 Pending 67 DOM
2. 2026-05-08
   status Active
3. 2026-05-08
   price $149,900
4. 2025-10-25
   status Active
5. 2025-10-18
   listed $169,900 Active
6. 2019-12-11
   soldstatus $82,000
7. 2019-12-10
   soldstatus $82,000 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   SPACIOUS 3RD FLOR CONDO. 3BDRMS; 1 COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE OR NURSERY. MASTER HAS A LARGE WIC. 2 FULL BATHROOMS. LIVING ROOM SEPARATES THE BEDROOMS. MARBLE HEARTH ELECTRIC FIREPLACE. LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM. PATIO OVERLOOKS THE POOL, PICNIC (GRILL) AREA AND VOLLEYBALL COURT. THERE IS A FITNESS CENTER. THIS UNIT INLCUDES A SINGLE CAR GARAGE.

8. 2019-06-17
   listed $87,999 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   SPACIOUS 3RD FLOR CONDO. 3BDRMS; 1 COULD BE USED AS AN OFFICE OR NURSERY. MASTER HAS A LARGE WIC. 2 FULL BATHROOMS. LIVING ROOM SEPARATES THE BEDROOMS. MARBLE HEARTH ELECTRIC FIREPLACE. LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM. PATIO OVERLOOKS THE POOL, PICNIC (GRILL) AREA AND VOLLEYBALL COURT. THERE IS A FITNESS CENTER. THIS UNIT INLCUDES A SINGLE CAR GARAGE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$588
• After-tax cash flow: $601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,834
• Household income: $62,249
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2511.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.20%
• Current HPI: 231.873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+70.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $149,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-25 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $169,900 LPRMLS
• 2019-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-10 Sold (MLS) $82,000 LPRMLS
• 2019-06-17 Listed $87,999 LPRMLS

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,248 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.