128 Shadalane Unit #A Walk · Ballwin, MO 63011

$115,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 888 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1972 $297/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW WINDOWS JUST INSTALLED | For Owners ONLY - Cannot be rented. Excellent Ballwin Location | Top Notch Rockwood Schools | Affordable open concept living | Heart of shopping and restaurants. Welcome | Neighborhood Pool | Kids Play-yard | Park like central courtyard | Mature trees | Garage parking + Reserved parking lot spot | Electric Panel upgrade 2024 | New dishwasher | 2025 - New Carpet, New Paint, New Countertop, Bathroom remodel, New clothes washer Welcome to this cozy low maintenance apartment style condo with 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bath with almost 900 sq. ft. of living space. Upon entering you see living room to the right that also leads to the patio with sliding glass door. The other

Key facts

• New dishwasher
• Neighborhood pool
• New windows

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL
• PARK LIKE CENTRAL COURTYARD
• MATURE TREES
• ELECTRIC PANEL UPGRADE
• NEW DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Burtonwood Manor 1 HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $297; Community pool; HOA covers clubhouse, pool, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volt electric service (Ameren); Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with 8 ft+ pour

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westridge Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 400 students, 20% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 146 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.09%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $6,744
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $28,426
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63011

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,193/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$297
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $495	+0% $462	+5% $429	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $311	-5% $386	+0% $462	+5% $538	+10% $614
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $492	base $462	+0.5pp $432	+1.0pp $402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Hillsdale Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,995	$2.16	45d	1	0.10mi
170 Steamboat Ln Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1177	$1,832	$1.56	0d	11	0.81mi
1212 Clarkson Ct #1212 Ellisville, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,700	$2.12	45d	1	1.02mi
15970 Manchester Rd Ellisville, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,597	$2.71	0d	102	1.34mi
500 Seven Trails Dr Ballwin, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,904	$1.63	0d	18	1.34mi
920 Quail Terrace Ct Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,844	$1.90	0d	10	1.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $297 · $3,564/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $115,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,193
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − HOA: −$3,564
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $4,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$990
• After-tax cash flow: $4,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ballwin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #357

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballwin, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 91,586
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,920
• Household income: $124,454
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.82%
• Current HPI: 234.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+144.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $115,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $115,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 2000-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 1998-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,193 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.