43 Fair Harbor Dr Unit 43 Building 3 · Patchogue, NY 11772

$290,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 722 sqft · Condo · 11 Days on market

Built 1971

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing a delightful one-bedroom co-op conveniently situated near water, the railroad, and other amenities. This ground-floor residence offers a spacious living room, dining area, eat in kitchen, and a full bath. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this your cozy retreat!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in NY, #1,800 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: River Elementary School (math 75%, 300 students, 47% FRL); South Ocean Middle School (math 75%, 599 students, 57% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,179 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-51,790
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-35,651
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11772

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,621

Max offer price $267,228

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Mainsail Dr Unit 2-44 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	676	$2,450	$3.62	43d	1	0.09mi
28 Mainsail Dr Unit 1-28 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	676	$2,450	$3.62	43d	1	0.11mi
58 Midship Ln Unit 2-58 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	676	$2,450	$3.62	44d	1	0.11mi
16 Mainsail Dr Unit 1-16 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	676	$2,450	$3.62	24d	1	0.12mi
10 Mainsail Dr Unit 1-10 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	676	$2,450	$3.62	43d	1	0.12mi
234 River Ave Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	687	$2,390	$3.48	1d	1	0.32mi
40 Amity St Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	457	$2,200	$4.81	43d	1	0.62mi
90 E Main St Unit 2 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	43d	1	1.01mi
1 Village Green Way Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	947	$2,877	$3.04	1d	7	1.04mi
99 Waverly Ave Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,381	$2.57	1d	9	1.13mi
116 Waverly Ave Unit 8 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	730	$2,895	$3.97	43d	1	1.17mi
116 Waverly Ave Unit 7 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	722	$2,795	$3.87	43d	1	1.17mi
135 Terrace Rd Unit T02-135 Bayport, NY	—	1.0	595	$2,030	$3.41	22d	1	1.18mi
332 Terrace Rd Unit T08332 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	630	$2,415	$3.83	43d	1	1.18mi
420 Terrace Rd Unit T10-420 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	630	$2,415	$3.83	22d	1	1.20mi
821 Imperial Way Unit I8-821 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	715	$2,455	$3.43	22d	1	1.21mi
100 Terrace Rd Bayport, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$2,415	$3.05	1d	1	1.22mi
830 Terrace Rd Unit I8-830 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	715	$2,465	$3.45	22d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   listed $290,000 Active
3. 2026-03-16
   historical $290,000
4. 2024-05-30
   soldstatus $230,000 Closed 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Introducing a delightful one-bedroom co-op conveniently situated near water, the railroad, and other amenities. This ground-floor residence offers a spacious living room, dining area, eat in kitchen, and a full bath. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this your cozy retreat!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

5. 2024-03-14
   status Pending 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Introducing a delightful one-bedroom co-op conveniently situated near water, the railroad, and other amenities. This ground-floor residence offers a spacious living room, dining area, eat in kitchen, and a full bath. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this your cozy retreat!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

6. 2024-02-15
   listed $239,900 Active 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   Introducing a delightful one-bedroom co-op conveniently situated near water, the railroad, and other amenities. This ground-floor residence offers a spacious living room, dining area, eat in kitchen, and a full bath. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this your cozy retreat!, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

7. 2002-06-15
   historical
8. 2002-03-29
   listed $69,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$2,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,325
• − Management: −$2,325
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$6,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $-240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Patchogue

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1800

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 45,023
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,023
• Household income: $105,245
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.02%
• Current HPI: 375.1174
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+314.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Coming Soon $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-30 Sold (MLS) $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-15 Listed $239,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-29 Listed $69,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid