4441 Nicholl Dr · Mobile, AL 36619

$253,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1991 0.48 ac lot Est $272k · 7% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nice 2160 Sq. Ft. 3/2 in Cypress Shores . Priced for quick sale . Estate property that does not require Probate Approval prior to sale. Home has split brick in several places including foyer and kitchen. Hardwood throughout except in baths and sun room where ceramic tile is in place. Separate office off kitchen , which is open to the living room. Very cozy covered patio deck with outside sink and built in benches as a surround . Two car Garage Call your realtor or the listing agent to set up an appointment for viewing,

Key facts

• Separate office
• Split brick
• Outside sink

Tags

• SPLIT BRICK
• HARDWOOD
• CERAMIC TILE
• SEPARATE OFFICE
• COVERED PATIO DECK
• OUTSIDE SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Cypress Shores subdivision; No land lease; Not waterfront

Exterior

• Parking: Garage faces side
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available (110V & 220V); Natural gas available; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No special exterior features noted; No fencing; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Brick flooring; Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; Breakfast bar

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nan Gray Davis Elementary School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #424 of 627 statewide, top 68%, 491 students, 78% FRL); Katherine H Hankins Middle School (math 7% / reading 38%, grade F, #180 of 257 statewide, top 70%, 808 students, 82% FRL); Theodore High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #247 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,280 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,283 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.83%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,160
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3990 Point Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,280 (+6%)	9mo	$227,000	$100	76
3933 Cypress Shores Dr N	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,965 (-9%)	10mo	$232,000	$118	68
3823 Higgins Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,137 (-1%)	9mo	$400,000	$187	62
4087 Canal Cir E	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-14%)	2mo	$185,000	$100	60
4508 Cypress Business Park Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,094 (-3%)	10mo	$265,000	$127	60
4219 Canal Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-7%)	6mo	$300,000	$149	57
4715 Benson Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,956 (-9%)	18mo	$195,000	$100	47
4156 Furman Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,944 (-10%)	6mo	$245,000	$126	45
3815 Riviere Du Chien Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,443 (+13%)	18mo	$697,500	$286	38
3876 Higgins Rd	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,846 (-14%)	14mo	$215,000	$116	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-23,545
• Equity at exit: $37,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,552
• Equity at exit: $21,953

Cash invested: $71,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36619

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,331
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $653/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,428

Max offer price $253,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $346	+0% $274	+5% $202	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $164	+0% $274	+5% $384	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $339	base $274	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,475
• Closing costs: $7,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3512 Shadowwood Ct Mobile, AL	4.0	3.5	2514	$3,295	$1.31	22d	1	0.77mi
3813 Saint Andrews Loop N Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	2027	$2,450	$1.21	45d	1	1.05mi
3813 Saint Andrews Loop N Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	2027	$2,450	$1.21	22d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $253,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $253,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $253,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $253,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $253,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $253,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $253,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $253,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $253,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $253,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $253,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $253,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $253,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 11 DOM
19. 2026-05-19
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,041 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$388/yr (+$32/mo · 59.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,222
• − Property taxes: −$653
• − Insurance: −$6,388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,664
• − Management: −$2,664
• − Depreciation: −$7,386
• Taxable loss: −$677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$162
• After-tax cash flow: $3,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• City population: 205,729
• Population (ZIP): 14,550

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Vietnamese 5% Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.67%
• Current HPI: 197.1074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $253,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-19 Listed $260,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $653 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.