12053 La Padera Ln · Black Jack, MO 63033

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1976 8,367 sqft lot Est $175k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely updated ranch home awaits its new owner! Updated kitchen offers plenty of Shaker cabinetry, good counter space, subway tile backsplash, a full complement of appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring. The adjacent breakfast room is light and bright, thanks to the sliding glass door that leads to a terrific concrete patio. This is a versatile space, perfect for daily dining or entertaining. The living room is huge! It sits on the front of the home and includes beautiful hardwood flooring. Three nicely-sized bedrooms each offer incredible oversized closets and luxury vinyl plank flooring. The updated full bath is conveniently located between the bedrooms and the living spaces of the home. The large lower level is ready for your finishing touches and includes a walkout to the wonderful backyard. This home overlooks common ground in the back and provides great water views from several rooms and from the walkout patio. You will love the convenience of the two-car attached garage!

Key facts

• 8,367 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Above-grade living area reported by assessor
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Level lot; Adjoins common ground; Views; Near public transit

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Full basement with concrete floor and walk-out access; No fireplace; Views; Adjoins common ground; Near public transit
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Townsend Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 371 students, 78% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $185k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,716 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12113 La Padera Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	4mo	$149,000	$130	83
11955 Red Barn Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	5mo	$169,900	$152	82
12095 El Camara Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-3%)	0mo	$154,900	$142	82
12166 La Padera Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+1%)	2mo	$200,000	$176	82
6250 Pennyrich Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,186 (+6%)	2mo	$149,000	$126	77
12178 El Camara Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	4mo	$204,900	$179	77
12136 La Padera Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-5%)	4mo	$165,000	$156	75
6530 Farm Pond Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-5%)	2mo	$219,900	$207	75
11623 Arroyo Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,042 (-7%)	1mo	$174,900	$168	65
12045 Victorian Village Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,096 (-2%)	3mo	$104,900	$96	60
11757 Vizcuya Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,197 (+7%)	8mo	$244,900	$205	53
30 Tarpon Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,096 (-2%)	2mo	$124,900	$114	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $120,003
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.05×
• Total profit: $364,995
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,029/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $225	+0% $172	+5% $120	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $103	+0% $172	+5% $242	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $219	base $172	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	8d	1	0.50mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	2d	3	0.71mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	2d	1	0.82mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	2d	1	1.01mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	44d	1	1.13mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	2d	9	1.25mi
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    status $184,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 99-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $184,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,029 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,029 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,029
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $2,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+223.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $184,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-29 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-13 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-08 Listed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $57,250 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,029 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.