20874 Olive Leaf St · New Caney, TX 77357

$207,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,899 sqft lot $143/sqft · 17% below area Est $249k · 17% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the front section of The Canopies at Harrington Trails! Open-concept layout with spacious kitchen and breakfast bar. Energy-efficient with solar panel/battery system for low electric bills, plus a water softener. Enjoy a large backyard with currently no back neighbors and covered patio for outdoor living. Community offers 2 pools, playgrounds, trails and elementary school within walking distance.

Key facts

• Water softener
• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SOLAR PANEL BATTERY SYSTEM
• WATER SOFTENER
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $207k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,696 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,414
• List price: $207,000
• Delta: -17.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+0%)	2mo	$235,990	$163	86
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-2%)	2mo	$243,990	$172	83
16238 Bergara Bend Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+0%)	1mo	$210,990	$145	81
16253 Bergara Bend Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$202,990	$139	80
21540 Rustic Elm Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-0%)	1mo	$199,000	$138	79
16503 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	0mo	$213,990	$141	78
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	2mo	$231,990	$177	70
16249 Bergara Bend Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+0%)	0mo	$208,990	$144	68
16554 Timberwolf Trl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+9%)	0mo	$248,990	$158	67
16214 Bergara Bend Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	0mo	$162,991	$124	66
16558 Timberwolf Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+13%)	0mo	$231,890	$142	60
20942 Canary Wood Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (+7%)	1mo	$219,900	$142	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-60,161
• Equity at exit: $30,864

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-99,258
• Equity at exit: $17,898

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 90 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $237,495 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax from tax record: −$597 /mo · $7,161/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $146,696

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-224	-5% $-283	+0% $-341	+5% $-400	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-490	-5% $-416	+0% $-341	+5% $-267	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-237	-0.5pp $-289	base $-341	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	15d	1	0.43mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	73d	1	0.65mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	0d	59	0.94mi

HOA detail $63/mo · $756/yr

• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscapingpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $207,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $207,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $207,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $207,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $207,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $207,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $207,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $207,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $207,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $207,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $207,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $207,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $207,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $207,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $207,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $207,000 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $207,000 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $207,000 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $207,000 Active 140 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $207,000 Active 139 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $207,000 Active 138 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $207,000 Active 137 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $207,000 Active 136 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $207,000 Active 135 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $207,000 Active 134 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $207,000 Active 132 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $207,000 Active 131 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $207,000 Active 130 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $207,000 Active 129 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $207,000 Active 128 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $207,000 Active 127 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $207,000 Active 126 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $207,000 Active 125 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $207,000 Active 124 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $207,000 Active 123 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $207,000 Active 122 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $207,000 Active 121 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $210,000 Active 119 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $210,000 Active 117 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $210,000 Active 116 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $210,000 Active 113 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $210,000 Active 112 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $210,000 Active 111 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $210,000 Active 110 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $210,000 Active 108 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $210,000 Active 107 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $210,000 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,161 · $597/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,161 · $597/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$7,161
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$7,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,813
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,240–$21,720 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is located in a community with amenities such as pools, playgrounds, and trails. The home is move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $225,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,161 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.