20874 Olive Leaf St · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$210,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,899 sqft lot $145/sqft · 17% below area Est $253k · 17% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the front section of The Canopies at Harrington Trails! Open-concept layout with spacious kitchen and breakfast bar. Energy-efficient with solar panel/battery system for low electric bills, plus a water softener. Enjoy a large backyard with currently no back neighbors and covered patio for outdoor living. Community offers 2 pools, playgrounds, trails and elementary school within walking distance.

Key facts

• Water softener
• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SOLAR PANEL BATTERY SYSTEM
• WATER SOFTENER
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,782 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,016
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -17.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+0%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	87
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-2%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	84
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-3%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	83
21344 Pine Mill Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	3mo	$222,000	$157	76
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	0mo	$231,990	$177	71
16206 Bergara Bend Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$231,990	$177	70
20723 Southern Woods Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+4%)	4mo	$215,000	$143	65
21307 Pine Mill Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+10%)	2mo	$225,000	$141	61
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	59
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	59
14683 Canyon Pines Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+6%)	1mo	$184,000	$120	55
14670 Canyon Pines Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+10%)	4mo	$199,000	$126	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-54,540
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-87,568
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$597 /mo · $7,161/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,340

Max offer price $167,782

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-180	+0% $-239	+5% $-298	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-319	+0% $-239	+5% $-159	+10% $-78
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-186	base $-239	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	26d	1	0.65mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	7d	57	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectriclandscapingpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-02-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the front section of The Canopies at Harrington Trails! Open-concept layout with spacious kitchen and breakfast bar. Energy-efficient with solar panel/battery system for low electric bills, plus a water softener. Enjoy a large backyard with currently no back neighbors and covered patio for outdoor living. Community offers 2 pools, playgrounds, trails and elementary school within walking distance.

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $210,000 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the front section of The Canopies at Harrington Trails! Open-concept layout with spacious kitchen and breakfast bar. Energy-efficient with solar panel/battery system for low electric bills, plus a water softener. Enjoy a large backyard with currently no back neighbors and covered patio for outdoor living. Community offers 2 pools, playgrounds, trails and elementary school within walking distance.

18. 2025-10-07
    price $220,000
19. 2025-08-29
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,161 · $597/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,161 · $597/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$7,161
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$6,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,513
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, two bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is located in a community with amenities such as pools, playgrounds, and trails. The home is move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $225,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,161 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.