645 Glebe Landing Rd · Jamaica, VA 23079

$42,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 694 sqft · Other public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1900 6.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1900s-Style Farmhouse on 6 Acres This picturesque property offers endless possibilities! Restore the classic 1900s-style farmhouse for a cozy retreat or build your dream home on this spacious 6-acre parcel. The home sits centrally on an open grassy site, surrounded by serene, wooded areas for privacy and natural beauty. Perfect for a homestead lifestyle—grow your own garden, raise chickens, or even keep a pony. Enjoy rural tranquility with convenient access to nearby amenities. County has no record of any well or septic on the property. Back on the market!

Key facts

• Homestead lifestyle
• 6 acres
• Grow your own garden

Tags

• 1900S-STYLE FARMHOUSE
• 6 ACRES
• OPEN GRASSY SITE
• WOODED AREAS
• HOMESTEAD LIFESTYLE
• GROW YOUR OWN GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($941 rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D-, #817 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 611 students, 97% FRL); St. Clare Walker Middle (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 287 students, 87% FRL); Middlesex High (math 92% / reading 82%, grade A, #16 of 319 statewide, top 5%, 346 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 44% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,740 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.67%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $34,599
• Equity at exit: $17,992

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.94×
• Total profit: $81,661
• Equity at exit: $27,052

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23079

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $941 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $348/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $338

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $489	+0% $477	+5% $465	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $403	-5% $440	+0% $477	+5% $514	+10% $551
Rate	-1.0pp $498	-0.5pp $488	base $477	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-01
   listed $42,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $348 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $348 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$348
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$904
• − Management: −$904
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $5,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,286
• After-tax cash flow: $4,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Jamaica

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 491

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 44% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Romanian 2% German 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Current HPI: 334.4314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-03-01 Listed $42,000 CBRAR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $348 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.