4119 Ferris St · Panama City, FL 32404

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1956 0.37 ac lot $127/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR COMP PURPOSES

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (2025)

Exterior

• Utilities: Lot size approximately 0.37 acres
• Home design: Single-story (first level living described); Mobile dimension units listed in feet
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 97 x 165

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first level (approx. 10 x 10 and 10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Three total rooms; Measurements are approximate; buyer to verify

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $987 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $110k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.50%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,538
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -65.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $41,064
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $100,895
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $987

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4201 County Road 390 Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,999	$1.57	21d	7	0.47mi
198 MILL BAYOU Blvd Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$2,110	$1.65	21d	3	1.06mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $109,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $121,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $121,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $121,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $121,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $121,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $121,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $121,000 Active 27 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    status Active 706-char remark
19. 2026-05-11
    status Pending 706-char remark
20. 2026-04-30
    listed $121,000 Active 706-char remark
21. 1998-02-26
    listed $50,000 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    FOR COMP PURPOSES

22. 1998-02-23
    soldstatus $50,000 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    FOR COMP PURPOSES

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $10,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,570
• After-tax cash flow: $9,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+119.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $109,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $121,000 CPARMLS
• 1998-02-26 Listed $50,000 CPARMLS
• 1998-02-23 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,187 · +152.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.