107 4th St · Grafton, IA 50440

$26,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 0.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

An outstanding small town value. Property is offered with 2 lots - total 150' x 120'. Current house is older and needs rehab. This would be a great opportunity to build new on an oversized lot or rehab the current with room to expand. Nice detached 1 car garage. Quiet location the peaceful community of Grafton.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.413 acres (150 x 120)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $27k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $27k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#556 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• St Ansgar Community School District (rural): math 84% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #16 of 289 in IA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($186 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $26,496 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 121.99%
• DSCR: 6.43
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,488
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 4th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,428 (-0%)	0mo	$22,000	$15	99
310 2nd St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,435 (+0%)	14mo	$36,000	$25	76
201 3rd St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,266 (-12%)	16mo	$75,000	$59	64
605 Iowa St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+6%)	12mo	$235,000	$156	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.10×
• Total profit: $53,454
• Equity at exit: $13,613

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.97×
• Total profit: $120,287
• Equity at exit: $22,245

Cash invested: $7,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50440

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$141
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $440/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $239

Max offer price $26,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $781	-5% $773	+0% $766	+5% $758	+10% $750
Rent	-10% $670	-5% $718	+0% $766	+5% $813	+10% $861
Rate	-1.0pp $779	-0.5pp $773	base $766	+0.5pp $759	+1.0pp $752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,725
• Closing costs: $807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-04
   listed $26,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,507
• − Property taxes: −$440
• − Insurance: −$134
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$783
• Taxable income: $9,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,236
• After-tax cash flow: $6,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St Ansgar Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1925200
• Math proficiency: 84% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,141
• Composite: 70.36/100
• National rank: #269
• State rank: #16 of 289 in IA

Livability — Grafton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #556
• US rank: #12531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grafton, IA
• City population: 275
• Population (ZIP): 275

Population outlook (Worth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,751 people
• By 2030: 7,775 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 7,722 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 7,645 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 7,785 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 7,554 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 23% Iranian 9% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Worth

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.2% · R 63.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Current HPI: 157.7886
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — IAR
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — IAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $26,900 IAR

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $440 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.