117 Winding Hill Rd · Tobyhanna, PA 18350

$399,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1978 0.30 ac lot $278/sqft · 16% below area Est $473k · 16% under $88/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Appealing mountain style with a premium walking location to the picturesque lake and impressive pool. Spacious open living accenting tree top views and relaxed outdoor living with 2nd level decking and a private screened porch. 3 bedrooms, den, 2 baths convenient utility area, laundry room and attached exterior storage closet. Offered furnished. Enjoy the Lake Naomi Club, known for year round fun for all ages. Come discover why a getaway at Lake Naomi is so loved.

Key facts

• Impressive pool
• Tree top views
• Picturesque lake

Tags

• PICTURESQUE LAKE
• IMPRESSIVE POOL
• OPEN LIVING
• TREE TOP VIEWS
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• PRIVATE SCREENED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($59/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $400k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $351,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,454
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -15.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 Winding Hill Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,392 (-3%)	12mo	$450,000	$323	77
5581 Woodland Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (+6%)	4mo	$465,000	$306	72
2222 Hillcrest Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$515,000	$330	66
196 Split Rock Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,508 (+5%)	5mo	$549,000	$364	66
2112 Trout Pond Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (+0%)	5mo	$390,000	$270	64
133 Split Rock Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	13mo	$485,000	$333	56
2271 Beaver Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-1%)	6mo	$276,000	$193	54
221 Little Pond Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (+13%)	6mo	$515,000	$317	51
5541 Fox Run Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+3%)	9mo	$385,000	$259	51
261 Aspen Rd	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,350 (-6%)	12mo	$476,250	$353	49
1196 Redwood Ter	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+5%)	11mo	$485,000	$320	42
312 Foxglove Pl	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,633 (+13%)	1mo	$499,900	$306	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-64,399
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-55,310
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18350

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,646/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$752
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,572

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $399,900 Pending 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,900 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 301 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 299 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,900 Active 288 DOM
14. 2025-08-15
    listed $399,900 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Appealing mountain style with a premium walking location to the picturesque lake and impressive pool. Spacious open living accenting tree top views and relaxed outdoor living with 2nd level decking and a private screened porch. 3 bedrooms, den, 2 baths convenient utility area, laundry room and attached exterior storage closet. Offered furnished. Enjoy the Lake Naomi Club, known for year round fun for all ages. Come discover why a getaway at Lake Naomi is so loved.

15. 2000-12-27
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,646 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,982 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: +$336/yr (+$28/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,646
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,436
• − Management: −$3,436
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$6,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $1,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Tobyhanna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Pines, PA
• Population (ZIP): 595

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 12% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Korean 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Current HPI: 215.5562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+320.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Listed $399,900 PMAR
• 2000-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,646 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.