24 Hickory Ln · Heritage Village, CT 06783

$1,155,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1987 3.01 ac lot $346/sqft · 24% above area Est $930k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in one of Roxbury's most desirable neighborhoods, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath Colonial sits at the end of a quiet dead-end road, offering exceptional privacy and a peaceful setting, with the Natalie White Preserve just down the road. This beautifully updated Post & Beam home blends timeless craftsmanship with modern amenities, featuring warm architectural details, exposed white oak beams, and a dramatic living room with soaring 27-foot ceilings, along with thoughtfully designed living spaces. The flexible layout includes a private in-law or studio space, ideal for guests, extended family, or a home office. Set on a serene, wooded 3-acre lot with mature landscaping, the property provides a tranquil retreat perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Despite its secluded feel, it's a short 15 minutes drive from fine-dining, shopping, and easy access to I-84, and ideally located just over 90 minutes to NYC and approximately 2 hours 20 minutes to Boston, offering both convenience and comfort in a truly special location.

Key facts

• Wooded 3-acre lot
• Easy access to i-84
• 90 minutes to nyc

Tags

• PRIVATE IN-LAW OR STUDIO SPACE
• WOODED 3-ACRE LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-84
• 90 MINUTES TO NYC
• 2 HOURS 20 MINUTES TO BOSTON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.16M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($152k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.16M).
• Recommended offer: $1.09M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 3.0% in Heritage Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#112 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $35k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $323k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.09M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $685k; list at $1.16M implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,085,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.88%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $930,170
• List price: $1,155,000
• Delta: 24.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 E Woods Rd	0.38mi	4/2.5	3,476 (+4%)	2mo	$610,000	$175	74
39 Hickory Ln	0.21mi	4/4.0	3,691 (+10%)	4mo	$1,500,000	$406	64
80 Transylvania Rd	0.70mi	4/2.5	3,088 (-8%)	13mo	$940,000	$304	44
257 Southbury Rd	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,086 (-8%)	12mo	$1,875,000	$608	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $617,365
• Equity at exit: $172,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $1,572,983
• Equity at exit: $99,863

Cash invested: $323,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06783

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $24,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,057
• Tax from tax record: −$503 /mo · $6,037/yr
• Insurance: −$481
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,230
• Net cashflow: $12,635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,913

Max offer price $1,155,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $288,750
• Closing costs: $34,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Old Roxbury Rd Roxbury, CT	4.0	4.5	3996	$35,000	$8.76	43d	1	1.47mi
24 Old Roxbury Rd Roxbury, CT	3.0	3.5	2862	$15,000	$5.24	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,155,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,155,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-04-01
    listed $1,155,000 Active 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    Tucked away in one of Roxbury's most desirable neighborhoods, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath Colonial sits at the end of a quiet dead-end road, offering exceptional privacy and a peaceful setting, with the Natalie White Preserve just down the road. This beautifully updated Post & Beam home blends timeless craftsmanship with modern amenities, featuring warm architectural details, exposed white oak beams, and a dramatic living room with soaring 27-foot ceilings, along with thoughtfully designed living spaces. The flexible layout includes a private in-law or studio space, ideal for guests, extended family, or a home office. Set on a serene, wooded 3-acre lot with mature landscaping, the property provides a tranquil retreat perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Despite its secluded feel, it's a short 15 minutes drive from fine-dining, shopping, and easy access to I-84, and ideally located just over 90 minutes to NYC and approximately 2 hours 20 minutes to Boston, offering both convenience and comfort in a truly special location.

19. 2026-02-12
    historical
20. 2026-02-02
    status Active
21. 2026-02-01
    historical
22. 2025-10-17
    listed $1,155,000 Active
23. 2025-10-13
    historical
24. 2022-03-16
    soldstatus $684,950 Closed
25. 2022-01-29
    historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
26. 2022-01-07
    listed $699,900 Active
27. 2021-11-30
    historical
28. 2021-08-19
    price $699,900
29. 2021-07-16
    listed $739,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,037 · $503/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,377 · $1,281/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,340/yr (+$778/mo · 154.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $298,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,698
• − Property taxes: −$6,037
• − Insurance: −$5,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$23,910
• − Management: −$23,910
• − Depreciation: −$33,600
• Taxable income: $140,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$33,828
• After-tax cash flow: $117,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 12
• NCES district ID: 0903530
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $86,065
• Composite: 63.18/100
• National rank: #638
• State rank: #20 of 153 in CT

Livability — Heritage Village

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #9662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,973
• Population (ZIP): 2,184

Population outlook (Northwest Hills County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 118,998

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 7% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northwest Hills

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 49.9% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.80%
• Current HPI: 170.3789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+56.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $1,155,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $1,155,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-10-13 Coming Soon — Smart MLS
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) $684,950 Smart MLS
• 2022-01-29 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2022-01-07 Listed $699,900 Smart MLS
• 2021-11-30 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2021-08-19 Price Changed $699,900 Smart MLS
• 2021-07-16 Listed $739,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,037 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.