5711 Tonawanda Dr · Myrtle Grove, FL 32506

$199,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1975 0.26 ac lot $107/sqft · 20% below area Est $249k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Space, comfort, and outdoor living come together at 5711 Tonawanda Drive. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom home features a flexible layout designed to fit a variety of lifestyles. The spacious interior provides room for everyone, while the three full bathrooms add convenience and functionality rarely found in similar homes. Whether you're hosting guests, creating a home office, or accommodating changing household needs, you'll appreciate the versatility this property provides. One of the standout features is the expansive deck—an ideal space for entertaining, enjoying Florida evenings, or creating your own outdoor retreat. Combined with a 2-car garage and generous living are

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Association fee frequency listed as annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; County maintained road; No water heater (listed as not present)
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Has a fireplace
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Shingle roof; Built as two levels
• Exterior features: Central access to the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 12 x 10 ft)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 10 ft)
• Flooring: See remarks
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace heating
• Interior features: Baseboards; Flooring: see remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.1% in Myrtle Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherwood Elementary School (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,773 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 511 students, 84% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 58% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $200k implies a 490% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,375 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,456
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -19.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Tonawanda Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,746 (-7%)	6mo	$274,800	$157	66
23 Seminole Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+2%)	13mo	$250,000	$131	64
14 Nottingham Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,975 (+6%)	0mo	$266,000	$135	63
1700 Brenda Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	11mo	$265,000	$137	60
1904 N 61st Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-14%)	1mo	$275,000	$171	58
31 Mohawk Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-15%)	11mo	$210,000	$132	44
314 Emory Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,715 (-8%)	23mo	$185,000	$108	30
6895 Oakcliff Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+14%)	16mo	$285,000	$133	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,368
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,271
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $857/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $254	+0% $198	+5% $141	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $128	+0% $198	+5% $268	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $249	base $198	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2702 Massachusetts Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1150	$1,745	$1.52	15d	9	0.68mi
221 Edison Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,598	$1.07	25d	1	0.84mi
3177 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	2244	$1,975	$0.88	25d	1	0.84mi
3296 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	1856	$1,795	$0.97	25d	1	0.84mi
1860 Broyhill Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,600	$1.02	25d	1	0.84mi
3230 Palmdale Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	25d	1	0.96mi
707 New York Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1266	$1,185	$0.94	25d	1	1.40mi
2121 Pin High Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1918	$2,065	$1.08	25d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,999 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $199,999 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $204,999 489-char remark
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $209,999 Active 489-char remark
19. 1976-01-01
    soldstatus $33,900
20. 1975-01-01
    soldstatus $7,000
21. 1975-01-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$803/yr (+$67/mo · 93.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$857
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$240
• After-tax cash flow: $2,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Myrtle Grove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #14805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Myrtle Grove, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 1,170
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2757.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $199,999 PARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $204,999 PARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $209,999 PARMLS
• 1976-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,900 Public Records
• 1975-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1975-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $857 · +22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.