117 Crestwood Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $128/sqft · 109% above area $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape the city and enjoy peaceful living near beautiful Cedar Lake in the quiet Baywood community. This never-lived-in 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is surrounded by mature trees and offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. Fully furnished and move-in ready, this home includes central heat and air conditioning, refrigerator, stove, all utilities already connected, and a brand-new septic system for added peace of mind. Located just about an hour and a half from Dallas, you can enjoy a serene retreat while still being close to shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity,

Key facts

• Cedar lake
• Serene retreat
• Baywood community

Tags

• CEDAR LAKE
• BAYWOOD COMMUNITY
• MATURE TREES
• FULLY FURNISHED
• BRAND-NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• SERENE RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 20850000053A50
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with Baywood Estates; Annual HOA fee of $100 (includes management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 2017
• Exterior features: Located on Cedar Creek; Less than 0.5 acre lot; Lot in Baywood Estate subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level 1) — 12 x 16; Bedroom (Level 1) — 12 x 12; Bedroom (Level 1) — 12 x 16
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; One living area; One dining area; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 431 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.37%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,950
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 109.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,675
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $9,606
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	43d	1	0.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $115,000 Active 769-char remark
18. 2025-11-23
    historical
19. 2025-10-03
    price $99,000
20. 2025-08-14
    price $120,000
21. 2025-06-17
    price $125,000
22. 2025-05-23
    listed $130,000 Active
23. 2025-02-16
    historical
24. 2024-09-17
    status Active
25. 2024-08-16
    listed $80,000 Active
26. 2022-07-29
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2022-06-27
    status Pending
28. 2022-06-22
    listed $44,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $3,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This never-lived-in 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is surrounded by mature trees and offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. It is fully furnished and move-in ready, with a brand-new septic system for added peace of mind.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value
• Both Landscaping — Maintaining the landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Maintaining the landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+156.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-06-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-06-22 Listed $44,900 NTREIS