Estero Plan · Temple, TX 76502

$243,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Estero, a beautifully designed one-story home in Pepper Creek Crossing community in Temple, TX. With approximately 1,572 sq. ft. of carefully planned living space, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath floorplan is perfect for any stage of life. Step inside and be greeted by the open-concept heart of the home - the kitchen and family room. The kitchen boasts a spacious island, sleek stainless-steel appliances, and generous counter space, ideal for everything from meal prep to casual to dining. Just beyond, you'll find the inviting secondary bedrooms and secondary bathroom, all conveniently situated near the laundry room for easy daily living.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Open concept
• One story home

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• LARGE REAR FACING WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $243,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1312 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,483 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,200
• List price: $243,990
• Delta: -12.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1643 Hillside Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,610 (+2%)	6mo	$249,900	$155	71
1529 Hillside Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-4%)	4mo	$265,900	$175	67
2213 Koppe Tap Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,662 (+6%)	4mo	$268,255	$161	66
7715 Krenek Tap Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-4%)	2mo	$274,900	$181	65
2303 Koppe Tap Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,662 (+6%)	5mo	$280,900	$169	64
7812 Krenek Tap Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+3%)	3mo	$282,400	$174	63
7823 Krenek Tap Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,662 (+6%)	6mo	$280,900	$169	61
8109 Northgate Loop	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,690 (+8%)	6mo	$245,000	$145	57
1910 Ashburn Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-4%)	8mo	$245,000	$163	56
1129 Aurora Grove Bnd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-10%)	0mo	$249,900	$176	54
4713 Fawn Valley Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-10%)	4mo	$255,000	$180	51
1098 Spring Terrace Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-11%)	5mo	$245,000	$175	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-76,075
• Equity at exit: $41,779

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-120,420
• Equity at exit: $24,227

Cash invested: $78,456 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,000 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1312
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,203/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,451

Max offer price $223,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-198	-5% $-295	+0% $-392	+5% $-489	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-469	+0% $-392	+5% $-315	+10% $-238
Rate	-1.0pp $-251	-0.5pp $-321	base $-392	+0.5pp $-465	+1.0pp $-539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,050
• Closing costs: $8,406
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1522 Hillside Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1950	$1,995	$1.02	93d	1	0.42mi
7809 Montclair Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$1,875	$1.03	72d	1	0.43mi
1902 Bayou Wood Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,795	$1.18	62d	1	0.45mi
1938 Bayou Wood Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,995	$1.19	93d	1	0.49mi
8113 Northgate Loop Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,850	$1.11	72d	1	0.51mi
1117 Lakeway Crossing Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,675	$1.18	93d	1	0.58mi
1245 Spring Terrace Loop Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,695	$1.30	93d	1	0.73mi
1309 Juneberry Park Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,695	$1.08	62d	1	0.85mi
8428 Adelaide Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1448	$1,550	$1.07	62d	1	0.85mi
2211 Hornbeam St Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$1,673	$0.95	93d	1	0.85mi
2231 Hornbeam St Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1639	$2,123	$1.30	70d	1	0.87mi
2204 Hornbeam St Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,123	$1.06	93d	1	0.88mi
748 Westfield Blvd Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,695	$1.22	93d	1	0.90mi
8515 Chena Ridge Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	62d	1	0.92mi
7305 Buffalo Grass Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,650	$1.24	93d	1	0.94mi
8118 Timber Hollow Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,795	$1.12	72d	1	0.95mi
516 Mercado St Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1467	$1,670	$1.14	93d	1	0.95mi
1218 Iron Glen Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	2241	$1,950	$0.87	93d	1	0.96mi
8112 Pineridge Way Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,895	$1.20	93d	1	0.97mi
8015 Pineridge Way Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,850	$1.09	93d	1	0.98mi
8614 Glade Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1552	$3,200	$2.06	93d	1	0.98mi
7523 Buffalo Grass Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,795	$1.13	72d	1	0.98mi
917 Hollyhock Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	62d	1	1.00mi
6611 Abode Ave Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,920	$1.95	62d	34	1.03mi
463 Westfield Blvd Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,627	$1.65	62d	18	1.07mi
1211 Fawn Lily Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.5	2077	$2,145	$1.03	62d	1	1.09mi
531 Parkfield Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,700	$1.32	93d	1	1.09mi
3011 Wasilla Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	70d	1	1.11mi
3004 Wasilla Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	62d	1	1.12mi
619 Hollyhock Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,800	$1.25	62d	1	1.13mi
3111 Wasilla Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	70d	1	1.15mi
3115 Wasilla Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	70d	1	1.16mi
3112 Wasilla Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	62d	1	1.17mi
3116 Wasilla Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	70d	1	1.18mi
513 Fallbrook Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,850	$1.28	72d	1	1.18mi
3124 Wasilla Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	62d	1	1.19mi
8012 Bridgepointe Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,595	$1.22	62d	1	1.21mi
8918 Night View Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,649	$1.09	72d	1	1.21mi
8419 Brahma Plains Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,800	$1.21	93d	1	1.27mi
1111 Porterhouse Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,695	$1.12	93d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $243,990 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $243,990 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $243,990 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $243,990 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $243,990 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-04-11
   listed $243,990 Active 1307-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,696
• − Property taxes: −$4,203
• − Insurance: −$1,401
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$8,151
• Taxable loss: −$9,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,339
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,860–$23,580 screening

The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic updates and improvements to the exterior and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with more durable or stylish options can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more renters and buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can increase property value and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Lamar Middle F TX #1,122/1,662 Nat'l #9,410/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temple ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842330
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,120
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7123
• State rank: #590 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 371,114 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B