5 Witmer Rd · Manchester, PA 17404

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2005 1.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Value is in the land. Please be careful going into manufactured home. Floor is soft in places. It's possible to rehab or replace.

Key facts

• Manufactured home
• Rehab or replace
• 1.56 acre lot

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• REHAB OR REPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 1.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#288 in PA, #2,532 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Northeastern York SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #119 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northeastern Shs (math 73% / reading 50%, grade B-, #74 of 437 statewide, top 17%, 1,175 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.48%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $54,258
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.34×
• Total profit: $144,752
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17404

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2024-08-11
   status Pending
2. 2024-08-08
   listed $50,000 Active
3. 2022-08-19
   status Pending
4. 2022-08-18
   historical
5. 2022-08-14
   listed $79,900 Active
6. 2022-08-13
   historical
7. 2004-12-09
   soldstatus $37,500
8. 2004-10-09
   historical
9. 2004-04-09
   listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $10,538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,529
• After-tax cash flow: $8,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeastern York SD
• NCES district ID: 4217520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,807
• Composite: 47.06/100
• National rank: #2338
• State rank: #119 of 539 in PA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #288
• US rank: #2532

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 278,806 people
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 39,374
• Household income: $78,506
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 722.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.44%
• Current HPI: 237.5683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.38%
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-14 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-13 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2004-10-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-09 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,657 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.