4266 Migration Way · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$296,440

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,503 sqft · Land · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 $111/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing low-maintenance townhome living at Rookery in Green Cove Springs, Florida. Designed for comfort and convenience, these thoughtfully crafted townhomes offer modern layouts, stylish finishes, and smart features that make everyday living effortless. A professionally designed model home is currently under construction and is set to showcase the open-concept design, well-appointed kitchens, spacious bedrooms, and flexible living areas that define this community. These townhomes are ideal for those seeking a streamlined lifestyle without compromising on quality or space. Each residence is built with energy-efficient features and contemporary details that reflect today's homebuyer pref

Key facts

• $111 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not a senior community
• Financial info: CDD fee applies
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with amenities including children’s pool, dog park, fitness center, and playground; Association fee collected quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Residential use
• Construction: Built with fiber cement and frame construction; Other construction materials; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Smoke detector(s); Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Pantry; Smart home features; Walk-in closet(s); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-516 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,032 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-85,997
• Equity at exit: $44,200

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-137,035
• Equity at exit: $25,631

Cash invested: $83,003 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,555
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,447/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,734

Max offer price $221,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-311	-5% $-414	+0% $-516	+5% $-619	+10% $-721
Rent	-10% $-681	-5% $-598	+0% $-516	+5% $-434	+10% $-352
Rate	-1.0pp $-367	-0.5pp $-441	base $-516	+0.5pp $-593	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,110
• Closing costs: $8,893
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.68mi
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.68mi
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.69mi
1507 Julia St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,020	$1.25	2d	1	0.83mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	1.26mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $111 · $1,332/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $296,440 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $296,440 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $296,440 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $296,440 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $296,440 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $296,440 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $296,440 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $296,440 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $296,440 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $296,440 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $296,440 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $296,440 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $296,440 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $296,440 Active
15. 2026-04-09
    soldstatus $320,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,447
• − Insurance: −$1,482
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$8,624
• Taxable loss: −$11,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,765
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $296,440 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records