9015 Sarah Dr · Polk City, FL 33868

$100,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1982 8,311 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a Find! This 4 Bedroom 2 Bath home has been completely remodeled and is move-in ready! Here is a quick list of what has been done to this property: Brand new 4 ton HVAC, New Water Heater, New Drywall, Brand New Kitchen w/ Granite countertops and faux rock backsplash, New ceiling fan and light fixtures throughout, New high end laminate flooring! Laundry room has been insulated and AC. Oversized Lot and No HOA----You own the land! Hurry because this one will not last. .. Welcome Home:-)

Key facts

• Updates to hvac
• Renovated in 2022
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• NO HOA
• YOU OWN THE LAND
• RENOVATED IN 2022
• UPDATES TO THE WATER HEATER
• UPDATES TO HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 0.19 acres (about 772 m²)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured double-wide; One story; North-facing; Fixer condition; Entry on single level
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof; Stilt / on piling foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.04%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $21,075
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $66,541
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33868

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,312/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5760 Viburnum Ct Polk City, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,700	$1.19	23d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $100,000
3. 2026-03-25
   price $125,000
4. 2026-02-27
   price $149,900
5. 2026-02-05
   price $169,900
6. 2026-01-22
   listed $179,999 Active
7. 2024-11-19
   historical
8. 2024-10-04
   price $222,000
9. 2024-08-10
   listed $235,000 Active
10. 2022-09-26
    soldstatus $194,000
11. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    What a Find! This 4 Bedroom 2 Bath home has been completely remodeled and is move-in ready! Here is a quick list of what has been done to this property: Brand new 4 ton HVAC, New Water Heater, New Drywall, Brand New Kitchen w/ Granite countertops and faux rock backsplash, New ceiling fan and light fixtures throughout, New high end laminate flooring! Laundry room has been insulated and AC. Oversized Lot and No HOA----You own the land! Hurry because this one will not last. .. Welcome Home:-)

12. 2022-08-17
    status Pending 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    What a Find! This 4 Bedroom 2 Bath home has been completely remodeled and is move-in ready! Here is a quick list of what has been done to this property: Brand new 4 ton HVAC, New Water Heater, New Drywall, Brand New Kitchen w/ Granite countertops and faux rock backsplash, New ceiling fan and light fixtures throughout, New high end laminate flooring! Laundry room has been insulated and AC. Oversized Lot and No HOA----You own the land! Hurry because this one will not last. .. Welcome Home:-)

13. 2022-07-30
    status Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    What a Find! This 4 Bedroom 2 Bath home has been completely remodeled and is move-in ready! Here is a quick list of what has been done to this property: Brand new 4 ton HVAC, New Water Heater, New Drywall, Brand New Kitchen w/ Granite countertops and faux rock backsplash, New ceiling fan and light fixtures throughout, New high end laminate flooring! Laundry room has been insulated and AC. Oversized Lot and No HOA----You own the land! Hurry because this one will not last. .. Welcome Home:-)

14. 2022-07-30
    status Pending 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    What a Find! This 4 Bedroom 2 Bath home has been completely remodeled and is move-in ready! Here is a quick list of what has been done to this property: Brand new 4 ton HVAC, New Water Heater, New Drywall, Brand New Kitchen w/ Granite countertops and faux rock backsplash, New ceiling fan and light fixtures throughout, New high end laminate flooring! Laundry room has been insulated and AC. Oversized Lot and No HOA----You own the land! Hurry because this one will not last. .. Welcome Home:-)

15. 2022-07-23
    listed $220,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    What a Find! This 4 Bedroom 2 Bath home has been completely remodeled and is move-in ready! Here is a quick list of what has been done to this property: Brand new 4 ton HVAC, New Water Heater, New Drywall, Brand New Kitchen w/ Granite countertops and faux rock backsplash, New ceiling fan and light fixtures throughout, New high end laminate flooring! Laundry room has been insulated and AC. Oversized Lot and No HOA----You own the land! Hurry because this one will not last. .. Welcome Home:-)

16. 2022-07-20
    historical
17. 2022-07-11
    price $217,399
18. 2022-07-06
    price $223,499
19. 2022-06-28
    status Active
20. 2022-06-07
    status Pending
21. 2022-05-31
    price $226,000
22. 2022-05-31
    price $219,000
23. 2022-05-19
    listed $226,000 Active
24. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,312
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $5,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Polk City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #9243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,676

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.52%
• Current HPI: 325.6917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $179,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $222,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-10 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-12 Sold (MLS) $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-23 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-11 Price Changed $217,399 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Price Changed $223,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-31 Price Changed $226,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-31 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Listed $226,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+33.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,312 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.