5190 Clay Whaley Rd · St. Cloud, FL 34772

$355,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,088 sqft · Land · 147 Days on market

Built 2025 3,000 sqft lot $162/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The APEX has the WOW-Factor! This trendsetting townhome covers two stories and includes four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms and a two-car garage. This new two-story townhome features a spacious and inviting open-concept layout on the first floor that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space. All four bedrooms are located on the second floor to optimize comfort and privacy, including a luxurious owner’s suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile loft provides a welcoming shared living area on the upper level. Every home comes with Lennar’s Everything’s Included® promise, which includes new appliances

Key facts

• Versatile loft
• Open-concept layout
• Playground

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURIOUS OWNERS SUITE
• VERSATILE LOFT
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL
• MODERN FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neptune Elementary School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 993 students, 46% FRL); Neptune Middle School (math 49% / reading 48%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 978 students, 44% FRL); St. Cloud High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 2,264 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 879 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $274,133 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-87,942
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-120,642
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 879
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,741 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,325/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$162
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,311

Max offer price $289,931

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-327	+0% $-450	+5% $-572	+10% $-695
Rent	-10% $-666	-5% $-558	+0% $-450	+5% $-341	+10% $-233
Rate	-1.0pp $-271	-0.5pp $-359	base $-450	+0.5pp $-542	+1.0pp $-635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5176 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,350	$1.41	23d	1	0.03mi
5174 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,290	$1.38	25d	1	0.03mi
5172 Clay Whaley Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,240	$1.23	15d	1	0.04mi
5191 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,250	$1.26	25d	1	0.05mi
5195 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,750	$1.33	25d	1	0.05mi
5151 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,750	$1.33	25d	1	0.08mi
5115 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,490	$1.20	16d	1	0.12mi
5107 Loyalty Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,500	$1.21	23d	1	0.13mi
5100 Clay Whaley Rd Unit 5100 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,250	$1.23	25d	1	0.13mi
5152 Arrowfeather Ct Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,500	$1.28	0d	1	0.20mi
5134 Arrowfeather Ct Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	19d	1	0.21mi
5134 Arrowfeather Ct Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	18d	1	0.21mi
5097 Arrowfeather Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2366	$3,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.21mi
5097 Arrowfeather Ct Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	0d	1	0.21mi
5153 Natalia Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,900	$1.33	25d	1	0.22mi
5147 Natalia Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.5	2366	$3,200	$1.35	25d	1	0.22mi
5111 Natalia Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2300	$2,800	$1.22	25d	1	0.24mi
4377 Vibernum Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2366	$3,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.27mi
4377 Vibernum Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	25d	1	0.27mi
5161 Marlberry Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2071	$2,550	$1.23	0d	1	0.27mi
4371 Vibernum Ave Unit A St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,400	$1.32	25d	1	0.27mi
4512 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2114	$2,485	$1.18	0d	1	1.06mi
4632 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,500	$1.19	25d	1	1.11mi
4658 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2114	$2,500	$1.18	19d	1	1.14mi
4519 Windy Oak Way Saint Cloud, FL	5.0	3.5	2825	$2,950	$1.04	25d	1	1.15mi
4598 Sidesaddle Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2339	$2,800	$1.20	25d	1	1.21mi
4704 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,600	$1.29	13d	1	1.23mi
4724 Homestead Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2114	$2,550	$1.21	25d	1	1.26mi
4651 Sidesaddle Trl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,195	$1.29	19d	1	1.26mi
4536 Burrowing Owl Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,650	$1.47	25d	1	1.31mi
4501 Burrowing Owl Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,200	$1.41	19d	1	1.31mi
4329 Eagle Trail Bnd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,100	$1.35	23d	1	1.38mi
4469 Eagle Trail Bnd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1566	$2,200	$1.40	25d	1	1.41mi
4367 Ranch House Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,950	$1.25	0d	1	1.42mi
4358 Restful Fallow Cv Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,300	$1.47	25d	1	1.43mi
4348 Ranch House Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1808	$2,200	$1.22	25d	1	1.44mi
4346 Restful Fallow Cv Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,300	$1.47	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $162 · $1,944/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-21
   soldstatus $355,000 Closed
2. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-24
   price $355,000
4. 2026-03-16
   price $350,000
5. 2026-02-18
   price $345,500
6. 2026-02-10
   price $340,500
7. 2026-02-06
   price $360,500
8. 2026-01-06
   price $350,500
9. 2026-01-02
   price $375,500
10. 2025-11-05
    listed $374,500 Active
11. 2025-10-24
    soldstatus $1,510,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$5,325
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,632
• − Management: −$2,632
• − HOA: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$11,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,790
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Cloud, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 443.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-76.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $345,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $340,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $360,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $350,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $375,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $374,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,510,000 Public Records