2911 Armory Rd · Wichita Falls, TX 76302

$74,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 909 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1950 $82/sqft · 17% below area Est $90k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small 2 bedroom home centrally located. Small yard. Easy upkeep, metal privacy fenced backyard with a storage building.

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 16 days

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.64%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,324
• List price: $74,950
• Delta: -17.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2914 California St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (+9%)	10mo	$30,305	$31	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $26,448
• Equity at exit: $11,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $72,759
• Equity at exit: $6,480

Cash invested: $20,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76302

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $637

Max offer price $74,950

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $627	+0% $606	+5% $585	+10% $563
Rent	-10% $495	-5% $550	+0% $606	+5% $661	+10% $717
Rate	-1.0pp $643	-0.5pp $625	base $606	+0.5pp $586	+1.0pp $567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,738
• Closing costs: $2,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,950 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,950 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,950 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,950 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,950 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,950 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,950 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,950 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,950 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,950 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,950 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on marketlisting id $74,950 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-01-30
    price $74,950
15. 2025-08-21
    price $79,700
16. 2025-07-23
    price $79,895
17. 2025-05-18
    listed $79,900 Active
18. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Small 2 bedroom home centrally located. Small yard. Easy upkeep, metal privacy fenced backyard with a storage building.

19. 2022-02-02
    listed $45,000 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Small 2 bedroom home centrally located. Small yard. Easy upkeep, metal privacy fenced backyard with a storage building.

20. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus
21. 2018-05-14
    listed $25,000
22. 2015-08-17
    soldstatus
23. 2014-10-18
    listed $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 44.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,198
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,348
• − Management: −$1,348
• − Depreciation: −$2,180
• Taxable income: $6,449
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,548
• After-tax cash flow: $5,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wichita Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,604
• Composite: 27.06/100
• National rank: #7051
• State rank: #585 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wichita Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #8940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wichita Falls, TX
• County: Wichita County · 95,694 people
• City population: 95,694
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,932
• Household income: $59,590
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 478.0

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.67%
• Current HPI: 191.4059
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1053.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $74,950 WFAOR
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $79,700 WFAOR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $79,895 WFAOR
• 2025-05-18 Listed $79,900 WFAOR
• 2022-03-21 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2022-02-02 Listed $45,000 WFAOR
• 2018-06-08 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2018-05-14 Listed $25,000 WFAOR
• 2015-08-17 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2014-10-18 Listed $6,500 WFAOR

Property tax history

+23.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.