125 N 4th St · Lakeside, OR 97449

$195,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 728 sqft · Land public records · 379 Days on market

Built 1975 4,791 sqft lot $268/sqft · at area comps Est $189k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ESCAPE TO THE LAKE! No hotel reservation worries!! Cozy retreat near Tenmile Lakes — minutes from Tenmile Lake County Park with fishing, boating, and kayak access. Well-kept single-wide on a 0.11-acre lot featuring a newer & spacious 18’ x 29’ shop, carport with small lockable work area & storage with ally access and covered parking for your vehicle, or smaller boat/toys. ATV-friendly location with a designated route to the Oregon Dunes National Recreation Area via Spinreel Park. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and updated kitchen appliances. Ideal for full-time living, a weekend getaway, Airbnb or a smart investment opportunity!

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Kayak
• Covered storage

Tags

• COVERED STORAGE
• BOAT RAMP
• PICNIC AREA
• KAYAK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath land listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#215 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• North Bend SD 13 (town): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #21 of 58 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Bay Elementary School (math 34% / reading 42%, grade F, #197 of 412 statewide, top 48%, 443 students, 69% FRL); North Bend Middle School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 494 students, 68% FRL); North Bend Senior High School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #2 of 143 statewide, top 6%, 731 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $195k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.09%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,869
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 5.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,551
• Equity at exit: $65,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $24,751
• Equity at exit: $86,821

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97449

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $421/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $176,631

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-49	+0% $-104	+5% $-159	+10% $-447
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-177	+0% $-104	+5% $-31	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-54	base $-104	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Pond Ln Lakeside, OR	2.0	1.0	600	$1,850	$3.08	45d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 379 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 373 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 371 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 589-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 370 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 367 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 366 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 365 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 362 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 361 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 360 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 359 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 358 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 357 DOM
19. 2026-02-07
    price $199,900 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    ESCAPE TO THE LAKE! No hotel reservation worries!! Cozy retreat near Tenmile Lakes — minutes from Tenmile Lake County Park with fishing, boating, and kayak access. Well-kept single-wide on a 0.11-acre lot featuring a newer & spacious 18’ x 29’ shop, carport with small lockable work area & storage with ally access and covered parking for your vehicle, or smaller boat/toys. ATV-friendly location with a designated route to the Oregon Dunes National Recreation Area via Spinreel Park. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and updated kitchen appliances. Ideal for full-time living, a weekend getaway, Airbnb or a smart investment opportunity!

20. 2025-10-14
    status Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    ESCAPE TO THE LAKE! No hotel reservation worries!! Cozy retreat near Tenmile Lakes — minutes from Tenmile Lake County Park with fishing, boating, and kayak access. Well-kept single-wide on a 0.11-acre lot featuring a newer & spacious 18’ x 29’ shop, carport with small lockable work area & storage with ally access and covered parking for your vehicle, or smaller boat/toys. ATV-friendly location with a designated route to the Oregon Dunes National Recreation Area via Spinreel Park. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and updated kitchen appliances. Ideal for full-time living, a weekend getaway, Airbnb or a smart investment opportunity!

21. 2025-06-06
    price $219,000 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    ESCAPE TO THE LAKE! No hotel reservation worries!! Cozy retreat near Tenmile Lakes — minutes from Tenmile Lake County Park with fishing, boating, and kayak access. Well-kept single-wide on a 0.11-acre lot featuring a newer & spacious 18’ x 29’ shop, carport with small lockable work area & storage with ally access and covered parking for your vehicle, or smaller boat/toys. ATV-friendly location with a designated route to the Oregon Dunes National Recreation Area via Spinreel Park. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and updated kitchen appliances. Ideal for full-time living, a weekend getaway, Airbnb or a smart investment opportunity!

22. 2025-03-15
    listed $229,000 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    ESCAPE TO THE LAKE! No hotel reservation worries!! Cozy retreat near Tenmile Lakes — minutes from Tenmile Lake County Park with fishing, boating, and kayak access. Well-kept single-wide on a 0.11-acre lot featuring a newer & spacious 18’ x 29’ shop, carport with small lockable work area & storage with ally access and covered parking for your vehicle, or smaller boat/toys. ATV-friendly location with a designated route to the Oregon Dunes National Recreation Area via Spinreel Park. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and updated kitchen appliances. Ideal for full-time living, a weekend getaway, Airbnb or a smart investment opportunity!

23. 2020-08-20
    soldstatus $75,000
24. 2020-08-17
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    nice older single wide trailer, with new 3/4" plywood flooring through out and & carpet, new drywall and paint in the living room. new interior and exterior paint, roof approx. 4 years old,lot size 10x50 close to ten mole lake rivers shopping and lots more. perfect for the fishermen boaters or just relaxing in your own h

25. 2020-07-24
    status Pending 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    nice older single wide trailer, with new 3/4" plywood flooring through out and & carpet, new drywall and paint in the living room. new interior and exterior paint, roof approx. 4 years old,lot size 10x50 close to ten mole lake rivers shopping and lots more. perfect for the fishermen boaters or just relaxing in your own h

26. 2020-07-16
    listed $75,000 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    nice older single wide trailer, with new 3/4" plywood flooring through out and & carpet, new drywall and paint in the living room. new interior and exterior paint, roof approx. 4 years old,lot size 10x50 close to ten mole lake rivers shopping and lots more. perfect for the fishermen boaters or just relaxing in your own h

27. 2017-09-05
    soldstatus $65,000
28. 1998-09-22
    soldstatus $32,500
29. 1989-10-01
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $421 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,470/yr (+$123/mo · 349.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$421
• − Insurance: −$6,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $-177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bend SD 13
• NCES district ID: 4108820
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,614
• Composite: 32.57/100
• National rank: #5681
• State rank: #21 of 58 in OR

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #14610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,222 people
• By 2030: 61,120 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 58,478 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 56,819 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 54,915 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 51,403 · -17.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+20.5 2016: R+24.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Current HPI: 190.1581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+2975.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $199,900 RMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $219,000 RMLS
• 2025-03-15 Listed $229,000 RMLS
• 2020-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-17 Sold (MLS) $75,000 RMLS
• 2020-07-24 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-07-16 Listed $75,000 RMLS
• 2017-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $421 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.