311 Joan · Buffalo, TX 75831

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 330 Days on market

Built 1998 8,049 sqft lot $97/sqft · at area comps Est $90k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath with Bonus Room – Buffalo, TX Discover comfort and convenience in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath manufactured home situated on a city lot in Buffalo. This home features a spacious bonus room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or guest space—along with an attached carport and a workshop for additional storage or hobbies. Enjoy a great location just minutes from schools and shopping. Don’t miss out on this versatile and affordable home!

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Great location
• Bonus room

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• WORKSHOP
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.1% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#661 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Buffalo ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #246 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 330 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 330 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Joan	0.00mi	2/2.5	924 (0%)	1mo	$89,900	$97	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $25,745
• Equity at exit: $47,036

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $72,164
• Equity at exit: $78,116

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75831

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $722

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $162	+0% $137	+5% $111	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $102	+0% $137	+5% $172	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $160	base $137	+0.5pp $114	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Michael Ave Buffalo, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$895	$1.08	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   Charming 2 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath with Bonus Room – Buffalo, TX Discover comfort and convenience in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath manufactured home situated on a city lot in Buffalo. This home features a spacious bonus room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or guest space—along with an attached carport and a workshop for additional storage or hobbies. Enjoy a great location just minutes from schools and shopping. Don’t miss out on this versatile and affordable home!

2. 2026-01-15
   price $89,900 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   Charming 2 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath with Bonus Room – Buffalo, TX Discover comfort and convenience in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath manufactured home situated on a city lot in Buffalo. This home features a spacious bonus room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or guest space—along with an attached carport and a workshop for additional storage or hobbies. Enjoy a great location just minutes from schools and shopping. Don’t miss out on this versatile and affordable home!

3. 2025-08-11
   price $93,500 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   Charming 2 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath with Bonus Room – Buffalo, TX Discover comfort and convenience in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath manufactured home situated on a city lot in Buffalo. This home features a spacious bonus room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or guest space—along with an attached carport and a workshop for additional storage or hobbies. Enjoy a great location just minutes from schools and shopping. Don’t miss out on this versatile and affordable home!

4. 2025-06-06
   listed $99,000 Active 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   Charming 2 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath with Bonus Room – Buffalo, TX Discover comfort and convenience in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath manufactured home situated on a city lot in Buffalo. This home features a spacious bonus room—perfect for a home office, playroom, or guest space—along with an attached carport and a workshop for additional storage or hobbies. Enjoy a great location just minutes from schools and shopping. Don’t miss out on this versatile and affordable home!

5. 2007-02-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$910/yr (+$76/mo · 123.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$859
• − Management: −$859
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$45
• After-tax cash flow: $1,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811990
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,590
• Composite: 39.58/100
• National rank: #3929
• State rank: #246 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #661
• US rank: #12450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,769

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,271 people
• By 2030: 17,271 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 17,151 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 16,863 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 16,304 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 13,968 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.7) · D 11.4% · R 88.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -58.9pp · 2024: -76.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.7 2020: R+74.4 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+68.4 2008: R+58.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Current HPI: 222.1498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $93,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2007-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $735 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.