14774 Congress St · Alafaya, FL 32826

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1990 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in the Alafaya area! Spacious 4/2 manufactured home with 1,782 sq ft on a 0.25-acre lot and no HOA, offering excellent flexibility and value-add potential. Open floor plan, ceramic/laminate flooring, eat-in kitchen, central AC and a 4-car carport. Strong value for size and location.

Key facts

• Ceramic flooring
• Open floor plan
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• ALAFAYA AREA
• NO HOA
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CERAMIC FLOORING
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property sub-type: Manufactured Home; Total living area about 1,782 square feet; Lot size about 0.25 acre; Road surface: Asphalt; One well and one septic on property; Zoning: R-T-1
• Financial info: Lease restrictions: none indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA (association not present)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable connected; Electricity available and connected; Fiber optics; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bonneville Elementary (math 46% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 430 students, 66% FRL); Corner Lake Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 841 students, 54% FRL); East River High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,050 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,602/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1705% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $299k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,191 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,605
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-64,414
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32826

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,130/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,473

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $187	+0% $102	+5% $17	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-1	+0% $102	+5% $205	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $178	base $102	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14630 Lady Victoria Blvd Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,695	$1.36	4d	1	0.22mi
1911 Colonial Woods Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,100	$1.42	25d	1	0.62mi
525 Loyola Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1400	$2,953	$2.11	0d	45	0.65mi
15634 Perdido Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,450	$1.45	19d	1	0.75mi
11950 Sands Cv Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1842	$2,499	$1.36	0d	1	1.12mi
2645 Talladega Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$2,281	$1.85	16d	1	1.25mi
12949 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,100	$1.61	9d	1	1.29mi
12912 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1392	$2,399	$1.72	6d	1	1.32mi
14050 Ithaca Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,115	$1.72	9d	1	1.32mi
13521 Old Dock Rd Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	2457	$2,799	$1.14	25d	1	1.34mi
13448 Old Dock Rd Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,795	$1.14	25d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 184 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,130 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,130 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,130
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,498
• − Management: −$2,498
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$923
• After-tax cash flow: $2,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 131,972
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,006
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1705.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 16% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.30%
• Current HPI: 318.563
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1516.2% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Listed $324,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-06 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-10 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-27 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-12 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-03 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-11 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-01 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 1991-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,130 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.