115 W 1st Ave S · Estherville, IA 51334

$137,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1940 9,570 sqft lot Est $113k · 22% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own your own home at an affordable price. 3 + bedrooms on a corner lot located close to a lovely park and recreational area with walking trails. Open concept living with area. Hardwood floors throughout. Full basement with noncompliant bedroom, family area and 3/4 bath. spacious deck. large 2 car garage with stairs too full attic and work shop area. All new kitchen appliances are a great added feature. Would also be a good investment property as there are things that can be updated Don't miss out.

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Investment property
• Full basement

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS DECK
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.1% in Estherville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#174 in IA, #3,136 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Estherville Lincoln Central Community School District (town): math 57% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #229 of 289 in IA (top 79%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 11 units permitted in Emmet County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Emmet County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.44%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,504
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 W 1st Ave S	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (+12%)	7mo	$123,000	$96	66
305 W 5th Ave N	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (+11%)	7mo	$125,000	$98	48
108 S 7th St	0.63mi	4/1.0	1,310 (+14%)	11mo	$71,500	$55	36
621 N 6th St	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,268 (+10%)	10mo	$180,000	$142	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-13,236
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $41
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51334

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,116/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 N 5th St Unit 203-2110 Estherville, IA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,355	$1.13	44d	1	0.48mi
203 N 5th St Unit 321-313 Estherville, IA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,255	$1.05	44d	1	0.48mi
203 N 5th St Unit 321-112 Estherville, IA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,240	$1.03	44d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-21
   price $137,500
4. 2025-11-19
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,637 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$521/yr (+$43/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$1,116
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable loss: −$570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $1,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Estherville Lincoln Central Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1911070
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,185
• Composite: 52.33/100
• National rank: #1588
• State rank: #229 of 289 in IA

Livability — Estherville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #3136

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estherville, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,827

Population outlook (Emmet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,084 people
• By 2030: 8,626 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 7,751 · -14.7%
• By 2050: 6,991 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 5,854 · -35.6%
• By 2100: 5,563 · -38.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Emmet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+8.9 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.14%
• Current HPI: 207.0155
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $137,500 Iowa Great Lakes BOR
• 2025-11-19 Listed $145,000 Iowa Great Lakes BOR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,116 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.