1515 Cardinal Ln · Brownsville, TX 78521

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,705 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1974 9,296 sqft lot $111/sqft · 21% below area Est $242k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick 3/2 with a 9200+ sqft lot in a great location.

Key facts

• 9,296 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,021/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2682% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,839
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -21.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1514 Whitewing Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,699 (-0%)	24mo	$264,900	$156	72
1548 Chipinque Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+8%)	10mo	$298,000	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,850
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $62,066
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,580/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2998 San Miguel Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	2044	$2,300	$1.13	21d	1	0.02mi
3016 San Miguel Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	2044	$2,200	$1.08	44d	1	0.04mi
95 Poinciana Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1218	$2,600	$2.13	14d	2	0.25mi
95 Poinciana Dr Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1130	$2,500	$2.21	44d	2	0.25mi
375 Media Luna Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,404	$1.49	14d	2	0.31mi
2425 Barnard Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,165	$1.31	14d	12	0.50mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit ujnit 1-A Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	0.51mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit A-13 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1137	$1,250	$1.10	44d	1	0.51mi
1815 Sancho Panza St Brownsville, TX	4.0	3.0	1784	$2,350	$1.32	44d	1	0.63mi
2901 Central Blvd Unit 202 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	21d	1	0.69mi
715 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.70mi
714 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1482	$2,400	$1.62	44d	1	0.74mi
1617 E Los Ebanos Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,900	$1.61	21d	1	0.79mi
1618 E Los Ebanos Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,700	$1.58	44d	1	0.81mi
501 Geraldine Ln Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$1,900	$1.18	21d	1	0.82mi
524 Wildrose Ln #1 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	2134	$2,300	$1.08	21d	1	0.84mi
63 N Tupelo Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,200	$1.07	21d	1	0.85mi
1604 Yale Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,800	$1.37	21d	1	0.86mi
35 La Paz Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,900	$1.14	14d	1	0.88mi
1405 Harvard Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	44d	1	0.88mi
17 Waterfront Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.0	2130	$1,900	$0.89	44d	1	1.00mi
2034 Toluca Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,000	$1.20	21d	1	1.01mi
322 McFadden Dr Unit 14 Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	44d	1	1.02mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1069	$1,500	$1.40	44d	2	1.03mi
10 Country Club Rd Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	1.05mi
11 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	21d	1	1.05mi
1904 Central Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$1,035	$0.99	44d	9	1.09mi
150 Country Club Rd Unit 2A Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1971	$1,850	$0.94	44d	1	1.10mi
142 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,800	$1.23	44d	1	1.11mi
424 Gilson Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.12mi
15 Sunnyside Ln Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1436	$2,000	$1.39	14d	1	1.15mi
15 Valles Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,350	$1.37	14d	1	1.19mi
42 Fairway Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	21d	1	1.23mi
57 Los Mesquite Ln Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1881	$1,650	$0.88	21d	1	1.27mi
2950 McAllen Rd #6 Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.5	1900	$2,600	$1.37	21d	1	1.30mi
2428 San Marino Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.5	1915	$2,800	$1.46	44d	1	1.33mi
124 Barcelona Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,900	$1.70	21d	1	1.35mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 802 Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,002	$2.02	14d	8	1.35mi
2459 Salerno Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.0	1797	$2,500	$1.39	21d	1	1.38mi
3247 Noble Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,000	$1.11	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 52-char remark

   Show marketing remark (52 chars)

   Brick 3/2 with a 9200+ sqft lot in a great location.

8. 2026-04-15
   listed $190,000 Active 52-char remark

   Show marketing remark (52 chars)

   Brick 3/2 with a 9200+ sqft lot in a great location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,580 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,580 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,580
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $190,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,580 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.