180 Welch Rd · Lonoke, AR 72086

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1960 5.06 ac lot Est $110k · 26% over ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment property ~ it is currently occupied. Property is being sold as is where is * * * * AGENTS SEE REMARKS * * * *

Key facts

• 5.06 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 124 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 5.06 acres (survey); Approximate living area reported from tax records
• Financial info: Financing options include conventional loan or cash

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Septic system; Private well; Electric service (Entergy available)
• Home design: Brick exterior
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rural property; Not in a subdivision; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen equipment: Other (see remarks)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating/cooling: Other (see remarks)
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.7% in Lonoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#195 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lonoke School District (town): math 30% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #146 of 238 in AR (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lonoke Primary School (401 students, 65% FRL); Lonoke High School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #182 of 292 statewide, top 63%, 487 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.39%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,466
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
180 Welch Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,938 (0%)	0mo	$110,000	$57	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,075
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $26,672
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72086

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,539/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-04
   price $139,000
3. 2025-12-04
   listed $149,000 New Listing
4. 2025-11-14
   historical
5. 2025-09-11
   price $215,000
6. 2025-07-16
   price $225,000
7. 2025-04-24
   listed $234,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,539
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,910
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$458
• After-tax cash flow: $3,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lonoke School District
• NCES district ID: 0509060
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 26.28/100
• National rank: #7247
• State rank: #146 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lonoke

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #15446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.46%
• Current HPI: 197.6009
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-40.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $139,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $149,000 CARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $215,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listed $234,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,539 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.