2621 Prescott #277 · Modesto, CA 95350

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Manufactured · 157 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $104k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is in a gated senior community (+55 and over) and is available for immediate occupancy. The home offers 3 bedrooms 2 baths with an open floor plan. Covered parking along with a Tuff shed for storage. Stop by and look, make this your home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered parking
• New hvac system

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• COVERED PARKING
• TUFF SHED FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $810 listed as a land lease amount
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (note: a land lease amount is listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available; Individual gas meter; 220 volts in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Manufactured mobile home; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1976
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Backyard with landscaped front and back; Storage shed(s); Covered deck; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Synthetic countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Covered deck and porch; Dual pane full windows; Deck attached to the living area; Great room; Synthetic kitchen counters; Dining bar and dining/family combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookups; Laundry located inside (inside room/area); 220 volts in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Stanislaus Union Elementary (urban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #344 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.72%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,475
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2621 Prescott Road Space 224 #224	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$122,300	$85	87
2621 Prescott Rd Unit 249a	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	6mo	$100,000	$69	84
2621 Prescott Rd #106	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$71,500	$53	84
2621 Prescott #111	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-2%)	6mo	$60,000	$44	82
2621 Prescott Rd #262	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$69,000	$51	82
2621 Prescott Rd #127	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	6mo	$84,000	$58	80
2621 Prescott Rd #87	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	5mo	$130,000	$86	78
2621 Prescott Rd #53	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+10%)	4mo	$105,000	$69	77
2621 Prescott Rd #151	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$125,000	$83	74
2621 Prescott Rd #17	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+13%)	2mo	$118,000	$75	73
2621 Prescott Rd #187	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	7mo	$125,000	$100	73
2129 Viking Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$205,000	$153	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $54,320
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $131,602
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95350

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $1,107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,169	-5% $1,138	+0% $1,107	+5% $1,076	+10% $1,045
Rent	-10% $934	-5% $1,021	+0% $1,107	+5% $1,194	+10% $1,280
Rate	-1.0pp $1,152	-0.5pp $1,130	base $1,107	+0.5pp $1,084	+1.0pp $1,060

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Palisade Ave #4 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,850	$2.00	14d	1	0.18mi
2112 Eicher Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	14d	1	0.24mi
1808 W Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	14d	1	0.43mi
1712 Applegate Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,595	$2.32	14d	1	0.48mi
2531 W Rumble Rd Unit 16 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	891	$1,795	$2.01	14d	1	0.57mi
2531 W Rumble Rd Unit 13 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	887	$1,825	$2.06	14d	1	0.57mi
1713 Randazzo Ave Unit 1713 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	14d	1	0.67mi
2404 Strivens Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,498	$2.08	14d	1	0.68mi
2821 Lou Ann Dr Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	1035	$2,150	$2.08	12d	3	0.80mi
3500 Shawnee Dr Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	14d	1	0.80mi
3601 Prescott Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$2,075	$2.60	12d	1	0.85mi
1809 La Corunna Pl Modesto, CA	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	14d	1	0.85mi
3200 Hahn Dr Modesto, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1262	$2,631	$2.08	4d	5	0.88mi
2900 W Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	936	$1,795	$1.92	11d	1	0.90mi
2020 Cheyenne Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,825	$2.33	4d	2	0.91mi
2213 Camborne Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1220	$2,395	$1.96	24d	1	0.92mi
2800 Braden Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,960	$2.52	3d	9	0.97mi
1701 Linwood Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,050	$1.37	14d	1	1.08mi
3904 Breda Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,400	$1.43	22d	1	1.18mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	14d	2	1.20mi
3600 Dale Rd Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	935	$2,100	$2.25	4d	1	1.24mi
3600 Dale Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	935	$2,100	$2.25	12d	1	1.24mi
1836 Brahms Way Modesto, CA	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,645	$1.61	14d	1	1.33mi
1836 Brahms Way Modesto, CA	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,645	$1.61	24d	1	1.33mi
2704 Snyder Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1806	$2,495	$1.38	12d	1	1.38mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	14d	10	1.40mi
1010 Bowen Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	940	$1,750	$1.86	14d	1	1.44mi
3820 Gareth Ln Apt C Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	14d	1	1.45mi
3620 Historic Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,800	$1.78	12d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $90,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 135 DOM
18. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $149,000 Sold 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This home is in a gated senior community (+55 and over) and is available for immediate occupancy. The home offers 3 bedrooms 2 baths with an open floor plan. Covered parking along with a Tuff shed for storage. Stop by and look, make this your home.

19. 2022-02-14
    status Pending (Do Not Show) 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This home is in a gated senior community (+55 and over) and is available for immediate occupancy. The home offers 3 bedrooms 2 baths with an open floor plan. Covered parking along with a Tuff shed for storage. Stop by and look, make this your home.

20. 2022-01-12
    listed $149,000 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    This home is in a gated senior community (+55 and over) and is available for immediate occupancy. The home offers 3 bedrooms 2 baths with an open floor plan. Covered parking along with a Tuff shed for storage. Stop by and look, make this your home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $12,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,025
• After-tax cash flow: $10,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanislaus Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637950
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,731
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #7286
• State rank: #344 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,136
• Household income: $75,621
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2163.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.05%
• Current HPI: 307.9532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $149,000 MLSListings
• 2022-02-14 Pending — MLSListings
• 2022-01-12 Listed $149,000 MLSListings