5953 Fairlands Rd · Bagdad, FL 32583

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2018 10,018 sqft lot Est $253k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2018, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Milton offers an open floor plan and a layout that makes everyday living simple. The living room flows directly into the kitchen and dining area, so the main space stays connected whether you’re cooking, eating, or relaxing in the evening. The home includes a one-car garage, a large fenced backyard, and no HOA, which means you have room for pets, projects, or parking a boat or trailer without worrying about restrictions. There is also an above-ground pool in the backyard that can stay with the property if the next owner wants it, or the seller is willing to have it donated if not. Located less than five minutes from grocery stores and with quick access to the interstate, this location makes it easy to commute toward Pensacola, Pace, or the bases while still living in Santa Rosa County. With newer construction, this home should also benefit from lower insurance costs compared to older homes. If you’ve been looking for a newer home, a fenced yard, and no HOA in a convenient Milton location, this is one worth seeing.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Bagdad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett C Russell Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 819 students, 59% FRL); Avalon Middle School (math 63% / reading 58%, grade B+, #131 of 571 statewide, top 23%, 767 students, 54% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 36% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $144k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,095 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.93%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,588
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5953 Fairlands Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,358 (0%)	0mo	$215,000	$158	100
4331 Crosswinds Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$188	70
4281 Tomahawk Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-0%)	8mo	$215,000	$159	59
5720 Meadow Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,363 (+0%)	4mo	$185,000	$136	56
5688 Ridge Ave	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,324 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$177	55
4305 Galt City Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+7%)	0mo	$215,000	$148	53
6115 Carroll Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+8%)	3mo	$293,000	$200	50
4417 Oak Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-6%)	8mo	$249,900	$196	49
5714 Pine Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-7%)	7mo	$234,900	$186	49
4320 Reinsma Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,481 (+9%)	4mo	$245,000	$165	48
4482 Oak Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-13%)	1mo	$230,000	$195	45
5844 Gulf Rd	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (+8%)	13mo	$369,000	$252	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-19,386
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $11,600
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,148/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $258	+0% $197	+5% $136	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $121	+0% $197	+5% $272	+10% $348
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $252	base $197	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4355 Park Ct Trlr Park , FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	24d	1	0.39mi
4530 Chantilly Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1629	$1,750	$1.07	24d	1	1.02mi
5625 Shooting Star Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	1.37mi
5604 Shooting Star Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,300	$1.74	14d	1	1.37mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	24d	1	1.42mi
4718 Lemoyne Vista Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,795	$1.16	24d	1	1.43mi
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Built in 2018, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Milton offers an open floor plan and a layout that makes everyday living simple. The living room flows directly into the kitchen and dining area, so the main space stays connected whether you’re cooking, eating, or relaxing in the evening. The home includes a one-car garage, a large fenced backyard, and no HOA, which means you have room for pets, projects, or parking a boat or trailer without worrying about restrictions. There is also an above-ground pool in the backyard that can stay with the property if the next owner wants it, or the seller is willing to have it donated if not. Located less than five minutes from grocery stores and with quick access to the interstate, this location makes it easy to commute toward Pensacola, Pace, or the bases while still living in Santa Rosa County. With newer construction, this home should also benefit from lower insurance costs compared to older homes. If you’ve been looking for a newer home, a fenced yard, and no HOA in a convenient Milton location, this is one worth seeing.

2. 2026-05-03
   historical Contingent 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Built in 2018, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Milton offers an open floor plan and a layout that makes everyday living simple. The living room flows directly into the kitchen and dining area, so the main space stays connected whether you’re cooking, eating, or relaxing in the evening. The home includes a one-car garage, a large fenced backyard, and no HOA, which means you have room for pets, projects, or parking a boat or trailer without worrying about restrictions. There is also an above-ground pool in the backyard that can stay with the property if the next owner wants it, or the seller is willing to have it donated if not. Located less than five minutes from grocery stores and with quick access to the interstate, this location makes it easy to commute toward Pensacola, Pace, or the bases while still living in Santa Rosa County. With newer construction, this home should also benefit from lower insurance costs compared to older homes. If you’ve been looking for a newer home, a fenced yard, and no HOA in a convenient Milton location, this is one worth seeing.

3. 2026-04-29
   price $215,000

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Built in 2018, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Milton offers an open floor plan and a layout that makes everyday living simple. The living room flows directly into the kitchen and dining area, so the main space stays connected whether you’re cooking, eating, or relaxing in the evening. The home includes a one-car garage, a large fenced backyard, and no HOA, which means you have room for pets, projects, or parking a boat or trailer without worrying about restrictions. There is also an above-ground pool in the backyard that can stay with the property if the next owner wants it, or the seller is willing to have it donated if not. Located less than five minutes from grocery stores and with quick access to the interstate, this location makes it easy to commute toward Pensacola, Pace, or the bases while still living in Santa Rosa County. With newer construction, this home should also benefit from lower insurance costs compared to older homes. If you’ve been looking for a newer home, a fenced yard, and no HOA in a convenient Milton location, this is one worth seeing.

4. 2026-04-29
   price $215,000 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Built in 2018, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Milton offers an open floor plan and a layout that makes everyday living simple. The living room flows directly into the kitchen and dining area, so the main space stays connected whether you’re cooking, eating, or relaxing in the evening. The home includes a one-car garage, a large fenced backyard, and no HOA, which means you have room for pets, projects, or parking a boat or trailer without worrying about restrictions. There is also an above-ground pool in the backyard that can stay with the property if the next owner wants it, or the seller is willing to have it donated if not. Located less than five minutes from grocery stores and with quick access to the interstate, this location makes it easy to commute toward Pensacola, Pace, or the bases while still living in Santa Rosa County. With newer construction, this home should also benefit from lower insurance costs compared to older homes. If you’ve been looking for a newer home, a fenced yard, and no HOA in a convenient Milton location, this is one worth seeing.

5. 2026-04-01
   listed $230,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Built in 2018, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Milton offers an open floor plan and a layout that makes everyday living simple. The living room flows directly into the kitchen and dining area, so the main space stays connected whether you’re cooking, eating, or relaxing in the evening. The home includes a one-car garage, a large fenced backyard, and no HOA, which means you have room for pets, projects, or parking a boat or trailer without worrying about restrictions. There is also an above-ground pool in the backyard that can stay with the property if the next owner wants it, or the seller is willing to have it donated if not. Located less than five minutes from grocery stores and with quick access to the interstate, this location makes it easy to commute toward Pensacola, Pace, or the bases while still living in Santa Rosa County. With newer construction, this home should also benefit from lower insurance costs compared to older homes. If you’ve been looking for a newer home, a fenced yard, and no HOA in a convenient Milton location, this is one worth seeing.

6. 2026-04-01
   listed $230,000 Active 1090-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

   Built in 2018, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Milton offers an open floor plan and a layout that makes everyday living simple. The living room flows directly into the kitchen and dining area, so the main space stays connected whether you’re cooking, eating, or relaxing in the evening. The home includes a one-car garage, a large fenced backyard, and no HOA, which means you have room for pets, projects, or parking a boat or trailer without worrying about restrictions. There is also an above-ground pool in the backyard that can stay with the property if the next owner wants it, or the seller is willing to have it donated if not. Located less than five minutes from grocery stores and with quick access to the interstate, this location makes it easy to commute toward Pensacola, Pace, or the bases while still living in Santa Rosa County. With newer construction, this home should also benefit from lower insurance costs compared to older homes. If you’ve been looking for a newer home, a fenced yard, and no HOA in a convenient Milton location, this is one worth seeing.

7. 2018-09-21
   soldstatus $143,585 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   Location is just off of Avalon Blvd with quick access to I-10. Total electrical new construction. Awesome three bedroom, 2 full baths and single car garage. This home has a foyer entry way with two bedrooms & the hall bath as you come in. The kitchen is open to the breakfast area and the family room. The kitchen is equipped with energy saver Whirlpool appliances that include a stainless dishwasher, smooth top range & built-in microwave. The kitchen has a work island & pantry. The laundry is located inside a closet in the kitchen area. The master suite is an average size. The master bath has double vanities, a garden tub and a large walk-in closet. The family room opens to a patio 10' X 12'.

8. 2018-01-21
   listed $143,868 720-char remark

   Show marketing remark (720 chars)

   Location is just off of Avalon Blvd with quick access to I-10. Total electrical new construction. Awesome three bedroom, 2 full baths and single car garage. This home has a foyer entry way with two bedrooms & the hall bath as you come in. The kitchen is open to the breakfast area and the family room. The kitchen is equipped with energy saver Whirlpool appliances that include a stainless dishwasher, smooth top range & built-in microwave. The kitchen has a work island & pantry. The laundry is located inside a closet in the kitchen area. The master suite is an average size. The master bath has double vanities, a garden tub and a large walk-in closet. The family room opens to a patio 10' X 12'.

9. 1996-10-01
   soldstatus $180,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,148 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,148
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,835
• − Management: −$1,835
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $2,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+19.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — NAMLS
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $215,000 NAMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $215,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $230,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $230,000 NAMLS
• 2018-09-21 Sold (MLS) $143,585 PARMLS
• 2018-01-21 Listed $143,868 PARMLS
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $180,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,148 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.