12811 Shaily Faith Ct · Barrett, TX 77532

$206,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Oakridge Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Transerve Management Co; Annual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 13); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $206,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,913.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,942 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,913
• List price: $206,490
• Delta: -22.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12934 Dianna Lee Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	3mo	$243,990	$192	83
12943 Dianna Lee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+4%)	1mo	$239,990	$181	78
12923 Dianna Lee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+4%)	4mo	$239,990	$181	76
11634 Heritage Wind Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+9%)	3mo	$239,900	$173	74
12911 Dianna Lee Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+4%)	4mo	$237,990	$180	73
13002 Dianna Lee Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	1mo	$252,990	$180	66
12907 Dianna Lee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$254,990	$181	66
13022 Shells Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	4mo	$248,990	$177	66
12926 Dianna Lee Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$253,990	$180	66
12910 Dianna Lee Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	1mo	$257,990	$182	66
12939 Dianna Lee Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	2mo	$252,990	$178	65
12930 Dianna Lee Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	4mo	$256,990	$181	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-68,595
• Equity at exit: $39,648

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-100,273
• Equity at exit: $22,991

Cash invested: $74,456 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,394
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,989/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,389

Max offer price $214,468

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-172	-5% $-264	+0% $-356	+5% $-447	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-509	-5% $-432	+0% $-356	+5% $-279	+10% $-202
Rate	-1.0pp $-222	-0.5pp $-288	base $-356	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,478
• Closing costs: $7,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $206,490 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $206,490 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $206,490 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $206,490 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $206,490 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $206,490 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $221,240 414-char remark
8. 2026-05-11
   price $221,240 602-char remark
9. 2026-05-08
   price $214,990 414-char remark
10. 2026-05-08
    price $214,990 602-char remark
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $237,940 Active 602-char remark
12. 2026-05-05
    historical
13. 2026-04-29
    price $237,940 414-char remark
14. 2026-04-29
    price $237,940
15. 2026-04-22
    price $231,390 414-char remark
16. 2026-04-21
    price $231,390
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $237,990 Active 414-char remark
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $237,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,895
• − Property taxes: −$3,989
• − Insurance: −$1,330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,736
• Taxable loss: −$9,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,160
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan. It is move-in ready with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in living areas — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in living areas — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $206,490 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $217,840 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $221,240 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $237,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $237,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $231,390 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $237,990 HARMLS