309 State St · Auburn, NY 13021

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1900 0.38 ac lot $62/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special – Priced to Sell Opportunity awaits with this classic home situated on an oversized lot, offering tremendous potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. The property features beautiful natural woodwork throughout, showcasing timeless character that could truly shine again with the right vision. Inside, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a functional layout ready for renovation and improvement. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a generous yard that provides plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment or future enhancements. This property is being sold as-is and has been priced with the necessary improvements in mind, making it an excellent opportunity for those ready to bring new life to a home with solid bones and classic charm. Don’t miss the chance to unlock this property’s full potential.

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Solid bones
• Generous yard

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS YARD
• SOLID BONES
• CLASSIC CHARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 7.6% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#298 in NY, #4,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, employment D-.
• Auburn City School District (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #558 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Casey Park Elementary School (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,000 of 2,108 statewide, top 95%, 392 students, 78% FRL); Auburn Junior High School (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 598 students, 81% FRL); Auburn High School (math 88% / reading 84%, grade A, #347 of 1,100 statewide, top 32%, 1,183 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 42% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.81%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,091
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -50.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Chase St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+6%)	4mo	$170,000	$124	62
76 Pulaski St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-2%)	16mo	$150,000	$118	61
38 Dayton St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-2%)	8mo	$179,900	$143	57
238 State St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,456 (+13%)	10mo	$150,000	$103	54
43 Dayton St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+1%)	13mo	$171,900	$132	53
37 Pulaski St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,116 (-14%)	9mo	$112,000	$100	47
163 Cottage St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-5%)	14mo	$135,000	$110	46
39 Standart Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,137 (-12%)	7mo	$130,000	$114	40
37 Peacock St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+12%)	9mo	$169,000	$117	39
43 N Standart Ave S	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-15%)	10mo	$185,000	$168	34
4 Case Ave	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,485 (+15%)	8mo	$189,900	$128	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $42,680
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $108,920
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13021

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,536/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $918	-5% $895	+0% $873	+5% $850	+10% $827
Rent	-10% $727	-5% $800	+0% $873	+5% $945	+10% $1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $913	-0.5pp $893	base $873	+0.5pp $852	+1.0pp $831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $79,900 Pending 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $79,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-04-01
   price $79,900 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Investor Special – Priced to Sell Opportunity awaits with this classic home situated on an oversized lot, offering tremendous potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. The property features beautiful natural woodwork throughout, showcasing timeless character that could truly shine again with the right vision. Inside, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a functional layout ready for renovation and improvement. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a generous yard that provides plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment or future enhancements. This property is being sold as-is and has been priced with the necessary improvements in mind, making it an excellent opportunity for those ready to bring new life to a home with solid bones and classic charm. Don’t miss the chance to unlock this property’s full potential.

7. 2026-03-23
   price $89,900 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Investor Special – Priced to Sell Opportunity awaits with this classic home situated on an oversized lot, offering tremendous potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. The property features beautiful natural woodwork throughout, showcasing timeless character that could truly shine again with the right vision. Inside, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a functional layout ready for renovation and improvement. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a generous yard that provides plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment or future enhancements. This property is being sold as-is and has been priced with the necessary improvements in mind, making it an excellent opportunity for those ready to bring new life to a home with solid bones and classic charm. Don’t miss the chance to unlock this property’s full potential.

8. 2026-03-10
   listed $99,900 Active 908-char remark

   Show marketing remark (908 chars)

   Investor Special – Priced to Sell Opportunity awaits with this classic home situated on an oversized lot, offering tremendous potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. The property features beautiful natural woodwork throughout, showcasing timeless character that could truly shine again with the right vision. Inside, you’ll find three spacious bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a functional layout ready for renovation and improvement. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and a generous yard that provides plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment or future enhancements. This property is being sold as-is and has been priced with the necessary improvements in mind, making it an excellent opportunity for those ready to bring new life to a home with solid bones and classic charm. Don’t miss the chance to unlock this property’s full potential.

9. 2026-02-05
   historical
10. 2026-01-22
    listed $85,000 Active
11. 2025-12-31
    historical
12. 2025-12-04
    price $83,900
13. 2025-11-20
    price $84,900
14. 2025-10-31
    price $89,900
15. 2025-10-16
    listed $99,900 Active
16. 2006-12-01
    soldstatus $63,600
17. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,536
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $9,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,353
• After-tax cash flow: $8,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Auburn City School District
• NCES district ID: 3603480
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,567
• Composite: 29.71/100
• National rank: #6452
• State rank: #558 of 590 in NY

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #4814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn, NY
• County: Cayuga County · 37,247 people
• City population: 37,247
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• Population (ZIP): 37,247
• Household income: $60,712
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1449.0

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.53%
• Current HPI: 338.5537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Auburn, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+64.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $89,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $83,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2006-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,600 Public Records
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,536 · -14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.