18423 Eldorado Way · Farmington, MN 55024

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1994 5,967 sqft lot $205/sqft · 10% below area Est $442k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Farmington with a fenced backyard and priced under $400,000? This beautifully updated home checks all the boxes! Features include a remodeled kitchen with white shaker cabinets, soft-close doors and drawers with pull outs, tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a breakfast bar perfect for everyday living and entertaining. It features 2 updated bathrooms, new carpet in the lower level, and fully fenced backyard make this home truly move-in ready. 2015-New Roof, 2016 New Furnace & Air, 2017 New Water Heater & Softener, New driveway in 2022. Don’t miss your opportunity to see this incredible home!

Key facts

• 5,967 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) home; Main level entry/foyer (7x7)
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt roof (over 8 years old)
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Deck; Chain-link fence; Public transit within 6 blocks; Underground utilities; Paved street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Upper-level deck (upper level); Bedroom (12x12, upper); Bedroom 2 (10x11, upper); Bedroom 3 (11x12, lower); Bedroom 4 (11x13, lower)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished daylight/lookout basement; Informal dining area; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#203 in MN, #4,269 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 326 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $227k; list at $399k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $251,673 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.56%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $442,123
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -9.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-103,625
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-140,578
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55024

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,086/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,290

Max offer price $291,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-385	-5% $-498	+0% $-611	+5% $-724	+10% $-837
Rent	-10% $-810	-5% $-710	+0% $-611	+5% $-512	+10% $-412
Rate	-1.0pp $-410	-0.5pp $-509	base $-611	+0.5pp $-714	+1.0pp $-819

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18388 English Ave Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1544	$1,999	$1.29	45d	1	0.24mi
19385 Elkridge Trl Farmington, MN	4.0	2.5	2500	$3,099	$1.24	25d	1	0.98mi
17079 Dysart Pl Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1894	$2,795	$1.48	11d	1	1.29mi
17074 Dysart Pl Unit 17074 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,800	$1.60	11d	1	1.30mi
17066 Dysart Pl Unit 17066 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,895	$1.53	20d	1	1.32mi
17040 Dysart Pl Unit 17040 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,700	$1.59	0d	1	1.35mi
19644 Escalade Way #906 Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $399,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $399,000 Active 792-char remark
3. 2026-05-09
   historical $399,000 792-char remark
4. 2017-07-20
   soldstatus $227,000
5. 2003-09-18
   soldstatus $196,300
6. 2003-06-23
   historical
7. 2003-04-28
   listed $209,900
8. 1994-12-15
   soldstatus $98,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,086 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,277 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$4,086
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,416
• − Management: −$2,416
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$14,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,521
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711820
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,959
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2905
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #4269

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 37,287
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,287
• Household income: $127,280
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 288.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.47%
• Current HPI: 225.6882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+303.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $399,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon $399,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $227,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $196,300 Public Records
• 2003-06-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-28 Listed $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $98,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,086 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.